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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 100% | +39 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −30 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −8 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 339d | PiEDawg | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | deltalpha | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,207 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 340d |  zwxokx | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,379 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | Icannotwin | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,018 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 340d |  MrLucker | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | livelaugh | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,881 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | livelaugh | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,884 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | cryptoriser | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,646 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | Donkolo | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,679 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d | Vjaja | 140-159 | SellYes>99¢ | $35,394 | −$35 −0.1% | — |
| 340d |  KARMASUR | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,559 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d |  Prexpect2 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,784 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | pc9527 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,801 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d | zwxokx | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,406 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | zillaman | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,171 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | li5478685 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,025 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | jiandro | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,109 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 340d | clayjosn1 | 140-159 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,464 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 340d | BARBIE- | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,548 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | BARBIE- | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | 0x97cc…bbbf5 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $23,561 | +$405 +1.7% | 21 |
| 340d | BARBIE- | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,787 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | BARBIE- | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,777 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 340d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $4,580 | +$2,105 +46% | 28 |
| 340d |  Opposite | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,558 | +$20 +1.3% | 20 |
| 340d | 0xeccdededcc2 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $8,437 | +$658 +7.8% | 22 |
| 340d |  Annica3 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,004 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d |  rafflez | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,548 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d |  stauffen5 fills | 160-179 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,910 | −$235 −2.4% | — |
| 340d | PredictionYogi | 140-159 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,992 | −$154 −3.1% | — |
| 340d |  ChaeChae | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d |  abandonment | 140-159 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,433 | −$23 −1.6% | — |
| 340d | lknxt95 | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 340d | POWERSLAP-EXPERT | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,970 | +$30 +1.0% | 20 |
| 340d | fanzong1024 | 140-159 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 340d |  TheFBIAgent3 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $15,183 | +$622 +4.1% | 21 |
| 340d | 0x265f…a448 | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | MAGA.ONE9 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,792 | +$54 +0.3% | 20 |
| 340d | Poory | 120-139 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,519 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 340d |  jesterthegoose | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,945 | +$24 +0.6% | 20 |
| 340d | Improbable-CitronNew account | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,068 | +$16 +1.5% | 21 |
| 340d | TheFBIAgent | 140-159 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,642 | −$93 −5.7% | — |
| 340d | cryptoriser | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,627 | +$21 +0.8% | 20 |
| 340d | toannhu | 120-139 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,560 | −$16 −1.0% | — |
| 340d | 0x97cc…bbbf | 140-159 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 21 |
| 340d | TheFBIAgent | 140-159 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$35 +2.0% | 21 |
| 340d |  OuchMyBalls2 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $9,007 | +$393 +4.4% | 21 |
| 340d |  dope-degen | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $10,892 | −$41 −0.4% | — |
| 340d |  billinaire | 140-159 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | −$89 −8.0% | — |
| 340d | gotcookedsohard | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,699 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | AyushGhiya | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,111 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | Desuesc | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,163 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 340d | Annica3 fills | 140-159 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $6,420 | +$1,335 +21% | 25 |
| 340d |  4.56 | 120-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,260 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 340d | 4.56 | 120-139 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,139 | +$122 +11% | 23 |
| 340d | influenz.eth | 120-139 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$185 +18% | 25 |
| 340d | influenz.eth2 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,668 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 340d | 5hundredx | 140-159 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$308 +26% | 27 |
| 340d | gotcookedsohard | 120-139 | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$573 +51% | 30 |
| 340d | cryptoriser2 fills | 180-199 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,501 | −$208 −4.6% | — |
tarastunas173 shares
oddsOnPMKT5 sharesOuchMyBalls6,687 shares
liubangdahanEmp549 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 4 12:00 PM ET to November 11, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 140-159 means the market gives it about 100%.