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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +25 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d | Visible-Handsaw-Rise | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,035 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,067 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,810 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d |  Bot4 | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,817 | +$28 +1.0% | 20 |
| 14d | Bot4 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,673 | +$19 +1.1% | 20 |
| 14d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,197 | +$57 +1.4% | 20 |
| 14d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,907 | +$32 +1.1% | 20 |
| 14d |  upont | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,364 | +$36 +1.5% | 21 |
| 14d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,946 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 14d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$55 +1.8% | 20 |
| 14d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,581 | −$26 −0.7% | — |
| 14d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,098 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 14d | tianjiyuyunzhilu5 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,989 | +$34 +0.3% | 20 |
| 14d | Sarths | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$16 +1.6% | 20 |
| 14d | Bersa1202 | 65-89 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,480 | +$180 +7.3% | 22 |
| 14d | beatyesterday | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,855 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 14d |  leleko2k | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | +$23 +1.9% | 20 |
| 14d | DrunkenKraken | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,353 | +$15 +1.1% | 20 |
| 14d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,590 | +$17 +0.5% | 20 |
| 14d | dddtrips | 65-89 | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,559 | +$441 +28% | 26 |
| 15d | bipbipbop | <40 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,008 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 16d |  TweetPulse.Live | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,933 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d | CakeBake | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,312 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
atoutlemonde1,043 shares
ElonJail209 shares
himken164 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 1 12:00 PM ET to October 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.