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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360-379 | 23% | +7 pts | +21 pts | 23¢ · 24¢ (1¢) | $15.5K | in 3d |
| 380-399 | 20% | +6 pts | +19 pts | 19¢ · 21¢ (2¢) | $8.16K | in 3d |
| 340-359 | 16% | +2 pts | +13 pts | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | $13.3K | in 3d |
| 400-419 | 12% | 0 pts | +11 pts | 11¢ · 13¢ (1¢) | $9.78K | in 3d |
| 320-339 | 10% | −3 pts | +6 pts | 10¢ · 10¢ (<1¢) | $18.4K | in 3d |
| 420-439 | 7% | −2 pts | +6 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $9.55K | in 3d |
| 440-459 | 5% | −1 pts | +4 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | $7.11K | in 3d |
| 300-319 | 3% | −5 pts | −4 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $16.6K | in 3d |
| 460-479 | 3% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $7.09K | in 3d |
| 500+ | 1% | −4 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $37K | in 3d |
| 480-499 | 1% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $13.6K | in 3d |
| 280-299 | 1% | −4 pts | −7 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $19K | in 3d |
| 240-259 | <1% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | $21.2K | in 3d |
| 260-279 | <1% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | $66.9K | in 3d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | bipbipbop | 500+ | BuyNo99¢ | $1,126 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 4h | srilakshmi | 500+ | BuyNo98¢ → 99¢ | $4,494 | +$18 +0.4% | 21 |
| 7h | useeew | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,076 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7h | gmgmmm | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,118 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 13h | hijaxk | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 13h | jinitaime | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,148 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 13h | himmjj | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,015 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21h |  stauffen | 360-379 | BuyNo87¢ → 77¢ | $1,500 | −$170 −11% | 24 |
| 1d |  AndreaPirlo | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,565 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | minutemans | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,103 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d |  decacepa | 500+ | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $1,286 | +$32 +2.5% | 21 |
| 1d | gmgmmm | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,116 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | useeew | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,075 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Mobilc2 fills | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,690 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Chepaik | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,912 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 2d | hijaxk | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | jinitaime | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,148 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | himmjj | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,015 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | useeew | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,074 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | minutemans | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,102 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | gmgmmm | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,115 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | CakeBake | 500+ | BuyNo99¢ | $4,960 | −$30 −0.6% | 20 |
| 3d |  Elonurmom | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,727 | +$114 +6.6% | 25 |
| 3d | Elonurmom | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$473 +12% | 21 |
| 3d |  hirichzhou | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $2,200 | −$23 −1.0% | 20 |
| 3d | Poiuztrewq | 320-339 | BuyNo95¢ → 90¢ | $1,265 | −$67 −5.3% | 21 |
| 4d | clggzz | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,780 | +$13 +0.7% | 20 |
| 6d |  TweetPulse.Live | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,470 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
Elonurmom5,333 shares
LinaBell🦊4,000 shares
Sugarina3,000 shares
Mei-ji2,870 sharesstauffen1,734 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 13 12:00 PM ET to October 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 23¢ for 360-379 means the market gives it about 23%.