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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +59 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −12 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −2 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −7 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −23 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −32 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −28 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −9 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −4 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360d | minicake | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,482 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 360d |  0xjgjgjghjgh | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,087 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 360d |  kiki.aoe | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 360d | rev169 | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,039 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 360d |  Fallout2 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 360d | easymoney3 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,005 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 360d | jijihaoda | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,012 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 360d | jijihaoda | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 360d | jijihaoda | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,006 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | fakerand | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,147 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | jesuschristcoded | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,232 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | Abandoned-Counsel | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,157 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 361d | SuperbowlorBust | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,820 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d |  LOL525 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,060 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d |  Prexpect2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,601 | +$104 +4.0% | 21 |
| 361d |  Gustav42 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,322 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 361d | vwt | 260-279 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,052 | −$45 −2.2% | — |
| 361d | 0xjgjgjghjgh | 260-279 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,465 | +$62 +2.5% | 21 |
| 361d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes37¢ → 100¢ | $3,630 | +$6,227 +172% | 28 |
| 361d | rev169 | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$41 +2.0% | 21 |
| 361d | Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,189 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 361d |  Annica3 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes38¢ → 100¢ | $3,877 | +$6,396 +165% | 28 |
| 361d | jeyjeyjey | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,300 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d |  LinaBell🦊 | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,220 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | jesuschristcoded | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,232 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | jesuschristcoded | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,232 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | XZZD | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,368 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 361d | XZZD | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,161 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | XZZD | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,208 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | 0xblackbox | 260-279 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$89 +8.3% | 23 |
| 361d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,431 | +$42 +0.8% | 20 |
| 361d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $66,330 | +$66 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,982 | +$18 +0.6% | 20 |
| 361d | jijihaoda | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$14 +0.7% | 20 |
| 361d | public1.tweezers | 480-499 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,994 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 361d |  c9nine | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,895 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | jesuschristcoded | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,227 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 361d | jesuschristcoded | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,227 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | Trustme11 | 260-279 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,236 | +$370 +30% | 28 |
| 361d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,020 | +$32 +0.4% | 20 |
| 361d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,417 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 361d |  hanzthehuman | 320-339 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,493 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 361d | edison668 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 361d | kiki.aoe | 260-279 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | +$717 +56% | 28 |
| 361d | PredictionYogi4 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,631 | +$151 +1.7% | 20 |
| 361d | zeus76 | 300-319 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$140 +7.0% | 22 |
| 361d |  c10ye | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,149 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | Worried-Parenthesis | 260-279 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,218 | −$1,218 −100% | 28 |
| 361d | SuperbowlorBust | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $55,588 | +$56 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | Wavy-CufflinkNew account | 300-319 | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $1,010 | −$1,010 −100% | 28 |
| 361d | elmozoya4481 | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,316 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 361d | LinaBell🦊 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,046 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 361d | Gustav42 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,794 | +$802 +21% | 23 |
| 361d | elmozoya4481 | 240-259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,299 | +$26 +0.6% | 20 |
| 361d | PredictionYogi | 340-359 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,193 | −$22 −1.8% | — |
| 361d |  ElonSpam | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,598 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d |  Elonurmom | 260-279 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,353 | −$1,353 −100% | 26 |
| 361d | Elonurmom | 240-259 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 361d | Annica | 280-299 | BuyYes31¢ → 0¢ | $2,543 | −$2,543 −100% | 31 |
| 361d |  🤺Yoon18nom | 340-359 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,823 | +$155 +2.7% | 21 |
OuchMyBalls10,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 14 12:00 PM ET to October 21, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.