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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-319 | 10% | +3 pts | — | 10¢ · 11¢ (1¢) | $2.46K | in 6d |
| 280-299 | 10% | +1 pts | — | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $2.43K | in 6d |
| 320-339 | 9% | +2 pts | — | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | $1.03K | in 6d |
| 340-359 | 9% | +2 pts | — | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | $1.81K | in 6d |
| 260-279 | 9% | −1 pts | — | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $4.22K | in 6d |
| 400-419 | 8% | +2 pts | — | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $8.59K | in 6d |
| 380-399 | 8% | +4 pts | — | 8¢ · 8¢ (<1¢) | $3.9K | in 6d |
| 360-379 | 7% | +2 pts | — | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $2.95K | in 6d |
| 240-259 | 7% | −2 pts | — | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $3.79K | in 6d |
| 420-439 | 5% | −1 pts | — | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $15K | in 6d |
| 220-239 | 5% | −3 pts | — | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $7.12K | in 6d |
| 200-219 | 2% | −4 pts | — | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $11.1K | in 6d |
| 440-459 | 2% | +1 pts | — | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $2.55K | in 6d |
| 460-479 | 2% | +1 pts | — | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $5.89K | in 6d |
| 500+ | 2% | −2 pts | — | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $11.8K | in 6d |
| 180-199 | 2% | −2 pts | — | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $10.8K | in 6d |
| 480-499 | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $5.57K | in 6d |
| 160-179 | 1% | −1 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $7.55K | in 6d |
| 140-159 | <1% | −1 pts | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $5.74K | in 6d |
| 120-139 | <1% | −1 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $7.3K | in 6d |
| 40-59 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 6d |
| 60-79 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $0.01 | in 6d |
| 80-99 | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $1.75K | in 6d |
| 100-119 | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $9.48K | in 6d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h | Poiuztrewq | 420-439 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,388 | +$37 +2.7% | 22 |
| 23h |  AndreaPirlo | 400-419 | BuyNo95¢ → 92¢ | $2,850 | −$90 −3.2% | 23 |
| 23h | AndreaPirlo | 420-439 | BuyNo95¢ | $2,850 | $0 0.0% | 23 |
| 1d |  TweetPulse.Live2 fills | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,024 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | clggzz2 fills | 120-139 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $3,451 | +$42 +1.2% | 21 |
TweetPulse.Live6,033 sharesAndreaPirlo4,283 shares
ComradeCat1,785 shares
LuckyMANNN1,000 shares
LornaPredicts20 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 16 12:00 PM ET to October 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 10¢ for 300-319 means the market gives it about 10%.