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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 100% | +92 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −22 pts | +5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | +25 pts | +71 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −2 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 353d | firstbaba | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,133 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 353d |  invisiblesteam | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,031 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 353d |  MrLucker | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,959 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 353d | ningquewulan | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,757 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 353d | Immediate-Volatility | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,806 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 354d | 0x265f…a448 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,081 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 354d | 20251021 | 180-199 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,598 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 354d |  ElonSpam | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,464 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d |  noreasapa | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,152 | +$30 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,780 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | 0xeccdededcc | 180-199 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,575 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | omaar123 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d | LeyJamesO | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,245 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 354d | LeyJamesO | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 354d | fakerand | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,003 | +$51 +1.0% | 20 |
| 354d | fakerand | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,003 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 354d |  Prexpect3 fills | 180-199 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,515 | +$50 +1.4% | 20 |
| 354d | jeyjeyjey | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,231 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 354d | firstbaba | 180-199 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,583 | +$31 +1.9% | 21 |
| 354d | cucatup | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,024 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d | fakerand2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,558 | +$53 +0.6% | 20 |
| 354d | PredictionYogi3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,283 | +$38 +0.4% | 20 |
| 354d | ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,502 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d | yes72 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,932 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d |  ChaeChae | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,816 | +$26 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | omaar123 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | check12345 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | cigarettes | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,286 | +$14 +1.1% | 20 |
| 354d | Morf | 180-199 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,819 | +$221 +5.8% | 22 |
| 354d | cigarettes | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,297 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | LeyJamesO | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,378 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | LeyJamesO | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,378 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 354d | pupich | 180-199 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$298 +18% | 25 |
| 354d | fdgsc | 220-239 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,152 | +$91 +4.2% | 21 |
| 354d |  Debosnys4 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,712 | +$51 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | Victornettoyeur | 180-199 | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $1,468 | −$1,468 −100% | 30 |
| 354d |  Gustav4 | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 354d | Victornettoyeur3 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $4,068 | +$696 +17% | 25 |
| 354d | Victornettoyeur | 200-219 | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $2,048 | −$760 −37% | — |
| 354d | Victornettoyeur | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 354d | Debosnys | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,735 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d | Abandoned-Counsel15 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,200 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d |  zb8 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,018 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d |  HolyMoses72 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,854 | +$34 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d | 0x97cc…bbbf2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,209 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 354d | fakerand | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,993 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | PredictionYogi | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,579 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d |  Annica2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,280 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | grsdgdfcvs | 220-239 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,056 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 354d | yhrtytr | 220-239 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,942 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 354d | ygdfgvsd | 220-239 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,124 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 354d | fakerand | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,723 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 354d |  dfghfdghdfgh | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,024 | +$52 +0.2% | 20 |
| 354d | Gustav4 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,032 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 354d | Poory2 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,973 | +$98 +3.3% | 21 |
| 354d | Victornettoyeur | 140-159 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | +$30 +2.6% | 21 |
| 354d | Solmaxi8888.sol | 160-179 | BuyYes82¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 25 |
| 354d |  dope-degen | 140-159 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,278 | −$240 −19% | — |
| 354d | Victornettoyeur | 200-219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,854 | +$32 +1.7% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls10,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 21 12:00 PM ET to October 28, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 180-199 means the market gives it about 100%.