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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | 100% | +47 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d |  Espagan | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,257 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | Unsightly-Editor | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,026 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 6d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,410 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d |  TweetPulse.Live | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,167 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,864 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | beatyesterday | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,021 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | cool.guide | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,367 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 6d |  Gustav4-12 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,574 | +$164 +3.6% | 21 |
| 6d | PredictionYogi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,721 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 6d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$44 +1.1% | 20 |
| 6d | carboyant | 165-189 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,413 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | PredictionYogi | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,537 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,889 | +$58 +3.1% | 21 |
| 7d | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 21 |
| 7d | zlfi | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,390 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 7d | welcometowinnercircle | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,345 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7d |  LinaBell🦊 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,078 | +$39 +0.2% | 20 |
| 7d | venezuelain | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 7d | 0xa123…3fd6 | 115-139 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$37 +3.7% | 21 |
| 7d | beatyesterday | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,722 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 7d | onekey02 | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,354 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7d | Espagan | 115-139 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$41 +3.7% | 21 |
| 7d | zlfi | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,300 | +$96 +2.9% | 21 |
| 7d |  upont | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,242 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 7d | dddtrips | 65-89 | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $1,152 | −$1,152 −100% | 28 |
| 7d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 115-139 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,772 | +$228 +13% | 23 |
| 7d | niuniuhgir | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,296 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 7d | upont | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 7d |  67BrainRot | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7d | CakeBake2 fills | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,100 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 8d | TweetPulse.Live | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,163 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 8d |  Mei-ji | 190-214 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,411 | +$99 +7.1% | 21 |
| 8d | miyugyiftu66 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,580 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 9d | CakeBake | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,508 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
AmiteshGupta435 shares
JoyL150 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 8 12:00 PM ET to October 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about 100%.