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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +54 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −47 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32d | Hasty-Worker | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,349 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 32d | beatyesterday5 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,201 | +$225 +1.5% | 20 |
| 32d |  Bot4 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,396 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 32d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,491 | +$24 +1.6% | 21 |
| 32d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | +$59 +1.9% | 21 |
| 33d | CakeBake2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,988 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 33d | beatyesterday6 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,678 | +$65 +0.4% | 20 |
| 33d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,053 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,975 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 33d | Clawbangers | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,814 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 33d |  BigMackyG | 65-89 | SellYes60¢ → 0¢ | $2,621 | +$2,621 +100% | — |
| 33d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 90-114 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,821 | −$28 −1.0% | — |
| 33d |  TweetPulse.Live | 65-89 | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,621 | +$348 +21% | 26 |
| 33d | LinabellAccountStolen | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,847 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | Kkirito | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$68 +3.4% | 21 |
| 33d | Amir10001 | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$135 +3.4% | 21 |
| 33d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$44 +4.2% | 21 |
| 33d | ElonSimp | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,326 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 33d |  0xPoni-Elon | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,221 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 33d |  Prexpect2 fills | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,981 | +$15 +0.4% | 20 |
| 33d | froku | 40-64 | SellYes37¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | −$2,010 −172% | — |
| 34d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,712 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 34d | 0xf14e…6173 | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,410 | +$90 +6.4% | 21 |
| 34d | CakeBake | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 34d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$145 +6.3% | 21 |
| 34d | ElonSimp2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,602 | +$45 +1.7% | 20 |
| 34d | froku | <40 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 25 |
| 34d | TweetPulse.Live | <40 | BuyNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$453 +41% | 25 |
| 34d | froku | 40-64 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$1,070 +84% | 25 |
dz1ft800 shares
578867986796671 shares
atoutlemonde200 shares
GodRama194 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 12 12:00 PM ET to September 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.