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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +25 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30d |  PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,621 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 30d |  LinabellAccountStolen | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,455 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 30d |  Bot4 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,592 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 30d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,825 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 30d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,330 | +$78 +2.4% | 21 |
| 31d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | +$47 +4.2% | 21 |
| 31d | Kkirito | 65-89 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$209 +14% | 24 |
| 31d | PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,609 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 31d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,220 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 31d |  upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,190 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 31d | CakeBake | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,822 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 31d | onekey02 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,530 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 31d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,510 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 31d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,653 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 31d | lIllIlllIlIl | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,765 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | Amir10001 | 90-114 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$42 +2.6% | 20 |
| 32d | CakeBake | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,759 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 32d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 90-114 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | +$132 +10% | 22 |
| 32d |  Mei-ji | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d |  TweetPulse.Live | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 33d | CakeBake | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,149 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.
