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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +26 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −24 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,196 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 27d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,328 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 27d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,392 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 27d | carboyant | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,399 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 27d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,490 | +$28 +0.8% | 20 |
| 27d | beatyesterday | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,372 | +$42 +3.1% | 21 |
| 28d | Laoxiong | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 28d | suntori | 40-64 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,930 | +$224 +12% | 23 |
| 28d |  Mei-ji | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,079 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 28d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,498 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 28d |  LinaBell🦊 | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,567 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 28d | beatyesterday2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,198 | +$19 +0.5% | 20 |
| 28d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | +$137 +12% | 23 |
| 28d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,720 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 28d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,490 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 28d |  upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,204 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 29d |  BigMaccyG | <40 | BuyYes31¢ → 0¢ | $2,298 | −$2,298 −100% | 28 |
| 29d | RootWoot | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$151 +7.6% | 21 |
| 29d | Laoxiong | <40 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$276 +15% | 22 |
| 30d | 0xf14e…6173 | <40 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$156 +15% | 22 |
| 31d | Mei-ji | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,612 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 17 12:00 PM ET to September 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.
