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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +28 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −34 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25d | sferfgefvrfgh1234 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,206 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 25d | jabali-furioso | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,504 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 25d | beatyesterday | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,138 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 25d | beatyesterday2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,535 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 25d |  y111m11 | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,353 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 26d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,520 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 26d | jabali-furioso | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$97 +5.3% | 21 |
| 26d | CakeBake | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,377 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 26d | Poortorich | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,528 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 26d | beatyesterday2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,839 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 26d |  Prexpect | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,045 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 26d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 26d | ym-mzt1 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,351 | +$10 +0.7% | 20 |
| 27d | onekey022 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,952 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 27d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | +$689 +57% | 25 |
| 27d |  stauffen | 65-89 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | +$198 +15% | 22 |
| 27d |  TweetPulse.Live | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,001 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
AmiteshGupta500 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 19 12:00 PM ET to September 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.