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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120-139 | 100% | +30 pts | +98 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −25 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 385d | Atkangaroo | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,713 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 385d | justwant5 | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,806 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 385d | Poiuztrewq | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,494 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 385d | 0x265f…a448 | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,133 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 385d | SuperbowlorBust | 120-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,683 | +$32 +0.1% | 20 |
| 385d | DonaldMusk1 | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,080 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 386d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,286 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | DonaldMusk1 | 120-139 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$103 +9.4% | 23 |
| 386d | FullPortDegen | 120-139 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,382 | +$88 +6.3% | 22 |
| 386d |  Cookedtan | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,070 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | alasdov | 120-139 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,007 | +$70 +6.9% | 22 |
| 386d |  MariusK2 fills | 180-199 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,770 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 386d | Fuzzy-Peace | 140-159 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,963 | +$159 +8.1% | 22 |
| 386d |  Gustav4 | 120-139 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$99 +9.3% | 22 |
| 386d | Gustav42 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,072 | +$65 +3.1% | 21 |
| 386d |  Annica | 120-139 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$219 +21% | 25 |
| 386d | LazyWanker | 120-139 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,658 | −$347 −21% | — |
| 386d |  Prexpect | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 386d | xbsuwrkfmdl372 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,392 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | Luakpai | 100-119 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | −$69 −6.9% | — |
| 386d | afaus | 100-119 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | −$64 −4.1% | — |
| 386d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,713 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 386d |  Turtleiny | 100-119 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,574 | +$14 +0.9% | 20 |
| 386d | Pakedu | 100-119 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$59 −5.6% | — |
| 386d | realgainzy | 120-139 | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$603 +40% | 28 |
| 386d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,275 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 386d | glarity | 100-119 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | −$25 −2.2% | — |
| 386d |  Elonurmom | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$43 +2.7% | 21 |
| 386d | ElonSpam7 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,787 | +$55 +0.2% | 20 |
| 387d |  monmoney | 560-579 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,654 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 387d | monmoney | 520-539 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,885 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 387d | MariusK2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,400 | +$50 +1.5% | 20 |
| 387d | DonaldMusk1 | 180-199 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,499 | +$21 +1.4% | 20 |
| 387d | DonaldMusk1 | 200-219 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | −$12 −0.8% | — |
| 387d | DonaldMusk1 | 200-219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,521 | +$11 +0.7% | 20 |
| 387d | ShivaLemire | 100-119 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$54 −5.0% | — |
| 387d |  Oompah..Loompah | 100-119 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | +$89 +7.9% | 21 |
| 387d | Gustav4 | 160-179 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | −$29 −2.2% | — |
| 387d | bruc333 | 100-119 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,423 | +$282 +20% | 23 |
| 387d | Trustme11 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,273 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  imp | 120-139 | SellNo51¢ → 0¢ | $1,016 | +$1,016 +100% | — |
| 387d | Atkangaroo | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,706 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 388d | ElonSpam | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,205 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | MariusK | 220-239 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,638 | −$13 −0.8% | — |
| 388d | ElonSpam | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,756 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | MariusK | 220-239 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$51 +3.2% | 21 |
| 388d |  stauffen | 180-199 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $3,773 | +$894 +24% | 23 |
| 388d | Bitgod | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,040 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 388d | ElonSpam | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,056 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 388d | ElonSpam | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,058 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | ElonSpam2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,205 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Annica3 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,365 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 389d | Annica | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Annica | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$38 +2.0% | 20 |
| 389d | Funat | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,102 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Pakedu | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Shiball | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,111 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Carrys22 | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,127 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Luakpai | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,068 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d | Jamechar | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,194 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls20,000 shares
tomatosauce1,000 shares
ScienceDog176 shares
jackyiu110 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 19 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 120-139 means the market gives it about 100%.