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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +40 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −32 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −37 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23d | RootWoot | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,175 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 23d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 23d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,220 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 23d | beatyesterday | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,530 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 23d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,066 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 24d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,590 | +$52 +1.5% | 20 |
| 24d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,516 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 24d | CakeBake | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,682 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 24d |  Mei-ji | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,265 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 24d | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 24d | phanish | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 24d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,510 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 24d | carboyant | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,840 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 24d | ElonSimp | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,840 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 24d |  funnybon | 40-64 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,446 | −$52 −3.6% | — |
| 24d | rw-mehtape | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,311 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 25d | carboyant | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,232 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 25d | CakeBake | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 25d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,085 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 26d | Mei-ji | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,478 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
ithinkthisisloser100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 21 12:00 PM ET to September 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.