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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120-139 | 100% | +60 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −22 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −5 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −8 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 381d |  q19 | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,842 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 382d |  Private.ma.rket.sc.am | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,150 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 160-179 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | 0x265f…a448 | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,254 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | justwant5 | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,040 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 382d |  basedcigany | 120-139 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,346 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | basedcigany2 fills | 120-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $20,081 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d |  Prexpect | 120-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d |  Gustav4 | 120-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,500 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 120-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,381 | +$103 +1.2% | 20 |
| 382d | c0ncept | 140-159 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,957 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 382d | DonaldMusk1 | 120-139 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,287 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 382d | basedcigany | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,130 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 382d | DonaldMusk12 fills | 140-159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,382 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 382d |  HTFK | 120-139 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,416 | −$23 −0.9% | — |
| 382d | q19 | 120-139 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | +$44 +1.4% | 20 |
| 382d | Rogu | 120-139 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,237 | −$103 −8.3% | — |
| 382d |  Annica2 fills | 120-139 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,394 | +$230 +9.6% | 22 |
| 382d | xbsuwrkfmdl373 fills | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,692 | +$22 +0.2% | 20 |
| 382d | Nutron53 | 140-159 | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,082 | −$235 −22% | — |
| 382d | 0B06 | 120-139 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$37 +3.1% | 21 |
| 382d |  Cookedtan | 140-159 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,322 | +$89 +3.8% | 21 |
| 382d | Cookedtan | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,408 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | secondSeek3 fills | 120-139 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,415 | +$230 +4.2% | 21 |
| 382d | basedcigany | 160-179 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,817 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | Intentional-Protest | 140-159 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | +$87 +5.9% | 22 |
| 382d | ElonSpam6 fills | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,261 | +$55 +0.2% | 20 |
| 382d | ForgetAboutBenjamin | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,685 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | Annica | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,226 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | LazyWanker | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,283 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d |  mrcojocaru | 100-119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,189 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | glarity2 fills | 100-119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,655 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | Annica | 100-119 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | +$74 +6.4% | 22 |
| 382d | ElonSpam | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $15,209 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 382d |  MariusK2 fills | 160-179 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,530 | −$62 −2.5% | — |
| 382d | DonaldMusk1 | 100-119 | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $1,347 | −$1,347 −100% | 25 |
| 382d |  GuessyProphet | 140-159 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,168 | +$49 +4.2% | 21 |
| 382d | XZZD | 160-179 | SellNo100¢ | $1,036 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 382d |  Oompah..Loompah | 140-159 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | +$83 +5.9% | 21 |
| 382d | HardlandSus | 100-119 | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | −$1,050 −100% | 28 |
| 382d | LazyWanker | 120-139 | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | −$1,785 −146% | — |
| 382d | c0ncept | 140-159 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,423 | +$200 +8.2% | 22 |
| 383d | astromage | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,051 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | edison668 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | Feraggamo | 240-259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,098 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 383d | MariusK | 160-179 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$25 +2.3% | 20 |
| 383d | zeus76 | 160-179 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,317 | +$34 +2.6% | 20 |
| 383d | ElonSpam4 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $45,604 | +$60 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d |  Armlet | 80-99 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,107 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | Rogu | 100-119 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | +$586 +56% | 25 |
| 383d | ElonSpam6 fills | 60-79 | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,338 | +$67 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | klitorchuk | 60-79 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,009 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 383d | ElonSpam2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,323 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | HardlandSus | 60-79 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,959 | +$16 +0.8% | 20 |
| 384d | MariusK | 60-79 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,985 | −$33 −1.7% | — |
| 384d |  ArcLing | 40-59 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,057 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d |  imp3 fills | 60-79 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,407 | +$127 +1.7% | 20 |
| 384d | imp | 60-79 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,090 | −$39 −1.3% | — |
| 385d | zeus76 | 60-79 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,799 | +$18 +1.0% | 20 |
| 385d | Trustme11 | 140-159 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | +$135 +11% | 21 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 23 12:00 PM ET to September 30, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 120-139 means the market gives it about 100%.