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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | +35 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16d | Radiant-Nonbeliever | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,322 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 16d |  y111m11 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,270 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 16d |  Bot42 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,536 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 |
| 16d | DrunkenKraken | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | +$24 +1.8% | 21 |
| 17d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,543 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d | CakeBake | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,784 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 17d |  PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,391 | +$596 +43% | 30 |
| 17d | TaichiGrandiMaster3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,148 | +$134 +0.4% | 20 |
| 17d | DrunkenKraken | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 17d | CakeBake | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,646 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d | lIllIlllIlIl | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,441 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d | NeoOracle | <40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,446 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17d | Actual-Ladle | <40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,450 | +$30 +0.9% | 20 |
| 17d | Intelligent-Tax | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | +$84 +6.4% | 22 |
| 17d | rw-mehtape | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,676 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 18d |  Mei-ji2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,842 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
Archeroon9,103 shares
Aureliuss214 shares
himken164 shares
0xPoni-Elon143 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 28 12:00 PM ET to September 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.