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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220–239 | 100% | +46 pts | +92 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <200 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–219 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240–259 | 0% | −22 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260–279 | 0% | −7 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280–299 | 0% | −2 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–319 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320–339 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340–359 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360–379 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380–399 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400–419 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420–439 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440–459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460–479 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480–499 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500–519 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520–539 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540–559 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560–579 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580–599 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600+ | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 399d | Bitcoin11 | 220–239 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,388 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 399d | james2101 | 220–239 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,710 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | 0x265f…a448 | 240–259 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 400d |  ElonSpam | 220–239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,462 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | 0xtrading | 220–239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d |  Prexpect2 fills | 220–239 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,973 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 400d |  Gustav42 fills | 220–239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,448 | +$21 +0.6% | 20 |
| 400d | Gustav42 fills | 200–219 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $6,926 | −$849 −12% | — |
| 400d |  Cookedtan | 240–259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,095 | +$5 +0.5% | 20 |
| 400d | Gustav42 fills | 240–259 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,777 | +$20 +0.7% | 20 |
| 400d |  SQP3G | 220–239 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 400d |  scastro2303 | 220–239 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,390 | +$91 +2.1% | 20 |
| 400d |  Annica2 fills | 220–239 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,662 | −$176 −6.6% | — |
| 400d |  SauceManDan | 220–239 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,042 | −$145 −7.1% | — |
| 400d |  arcisdead | 220–239 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | −$81 −4.1% | — |
| 400d |  Fieramosca | 340–359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,374 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 400d |  franjc | 220–239 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,438 | +$147 +6.0% | 20 |
| 400d | zeus76 | 220–239 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$105 +8.7% | 20 |
| 400d | Abis1 | 220–239 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,867 | −$151 −5.3% | — |
| 400d | arcisdead | 220–239 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,620 | +$138 +5.3% | 20 |
| 400d | alex5622 fills | 200–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,019 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | Rogu | 200–219 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,326 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | Abandoned-Counsel3 fills | 200–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,482 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | leiger | 540–559 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,150 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | leiger | 200–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,920 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 400d | leiger | 440–459 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,920 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | Rogu | 200–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,109 | +$58 +0.2% | 20 |
| 400d | Gustav44 fills | 200–219 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,968 | +$355 +5.9% | 21 |
| 400d |  lambda15 | 200–219 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,021 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | glarity | 200–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,783 | +$26 +0.4% | 20 |
| 400d | cipherpilot | 200–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,428 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | Poory2 fills | 200–219 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,773 | +$111 +1.9% | 21 |
| 400d | lambda15 | 200–219 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$24 +0.8% | 20 |
| 400d | 0x265f…a448 | 200–219 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$75 +5.3% | 20 |
| 400d |  EverythingAlwaysHappens | 240–259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,468 | +$68 +2.0% | 20 |
| 400d | xbsuwrkfmdl377 fills | 260–279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,206 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | SauceManDan | 200–219 | BuyYes41¢ → 0¢ | $1,013 | −$1,013 −100% | 20 |
| 400d | Annica | 220–239 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $1,515 | +$733 +48% | 20 |
| 400d | Annica | 200–219 | BuyYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,249 | −$1,249 −100% | 20 |
| 400d |  MariusK | 260–279 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,576 | −$16 −1.0% | — |
| 400d | Prexpect | 220–239 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | −$670 −67% | — |
| 400d | secondSeek | 320–339 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,395 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | Blattazor | 280–299 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,530 | −$19 −0.8% | — |
| 400d | CrushingIt | 240–259 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$126 +12% | 20 |
| 400d | CrushingIt | 300–319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | edison668 | 480–499 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,471 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | DonaldMusk1 | 240–259 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,203 | +$212 +18% | 20 |
| 400d | edison668 | 440–459 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,061 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 400d | edison668 | 480–499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | Poory | 200–219 | SellNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | −$382 −27% | — |
| 400d | edison668 | 380–399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,145 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 400d | DoubleKellogs | 260–279 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,790 | +$210 +7.5% | 22 |
| 401d | ElonSpam3 fills | 400–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,672 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 |
| 401d | edison668 | 440–459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,377 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | MariusK | 260–279 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$165 +12% | 23 |
| 401d | toakir | <200 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,606 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 401d | toakir | <200 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,607 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | Gustav4 | 260–279 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$213 +16% | 24 |
| 401d | Annica | 400–419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,995 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 401d | Annica2 fills | 420–439 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,160 | +$117 +3.7% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls15,506 shares
FreeCityIndividual500 shares
monkmood100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between September 5, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and September 12, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 220–239 means the market gives it about 100%.