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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +53 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −44 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39d | jabali-furioso | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,365 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 39d | Sony237 | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,261 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 39d | patouossa | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,111 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 39d | ElonSimp | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,108 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 39d |  Prexpect | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 39d | froku | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,470 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 39d |  PredictionYogi | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,226 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 39d | beatyesterday3 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,109 | +$35 +0.3% | 20 |
| 39d | beatyesterday3 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,824 | +$25 +0.4% | 20 |
| 40d | Actual-Ladle | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,080 | +$35 +1.1% | 20 |
| 40d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 40d | lannnn | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,016 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 40d | 0xf14e…6173 | <40 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | +$94 +8.5% | 22 |
| 40d | 0xf14e…6173 | 40-64 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$97 +9.3% | 22 |
| 40d | Intelligent-Tax | <40 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $1,131 | +$169 +15% | 23 |
| 40d | Intelligent-Tax | 40-64 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | +$158 +15% | 23 |
| 40d | thanksmom | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,786 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 40d |  stauffen | 40-64 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$323 +28% | 26 |
| 40d | beatyesterday2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,455 | +$54 +1.6% | 20 |
| 40d | Intelligent-Tax | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,047 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 40d | carboyant | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,796 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 40d | carboyant | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,279 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 40d | onekey022 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,340 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 40d | 0xf14e…6173 | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,409 | +$112 +8.0% | 22 |
| 41d | carboyant2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,214 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 41d | CakeBake2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,375 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 41d | ElonSimp | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,992 | −$8 −0.4% | — |
| 41d | carboyant | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,599 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 41d | ElonSimp3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,940 | +$60 +1.0% | 20 |
| 42d | CakeBake | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 42d |  BigMackyG | 40-64 | BuyNo55¢ → 100¢ | $1,229 | +$992 +81% | 25 |
hochnaesigezicke10,700 shares
dz1ft7,950 shares
0xPoni-Elon1,163 shares
atoutlemonde1,105 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 5 12:00 PM ET to September 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.