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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 16% | — | −5 pts | 12¢ · 20¢ (8¢) | — | in 440d |
| December 31, 2026 | 4% | 0 pts | — | 3¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | $109 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d | Worse-Scenario | December 31, 2026 | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $1,843 | −$26 −1.4% | — |
| 42d | selador | December 31, 2026 | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $5,697 | −$84 −1.5% | — |
| 52d | miaoxiaojie | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 96¢ | $1,316 | −$33 −2.5% | — |
| 64d | Scoofy-Bubik2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $5,075 | +$131 +2.6% | 8 |
| 64d | Mriz96 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $1,168 | −$36 −3.1% | — |
| 70d | hose3 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 96¢ | $9,100 | −$249 −2.7% | — |
| 124d | bigbluejay | December 31, 2026 | SellNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,032 | −$49 −4.7% | — |
| 140d | Bet1nthedark3 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $5,211 | −$290 −5.6% | — |
| 151d | hose | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $2,062 | +$74 +3.6% | 9 |
| 152d | Redlu | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $4,453 | +$226 +5.1% | 10 |
| 158d | 0x68bb…7148 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,721 | −$108 −6.3% | — |
| 162d |  AciliMeyvaSuyu | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,829 | +$108 +5.9% | 10 |
| 164d | tempho | December 31, 2026 | SellNo90¢ → 96¢ | $3,927 | −$286 −7.3% | — |
| 167d | Canaldi | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $7,278 | +$378 +5.2% | 10 |
| 169d | Go3ami2g2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $7,979 | +$574 +7.2% | 11 |
| 187d | Deabrest | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $5,799 | +$409 +7.1% | 11 |
| 189d | andreen77 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo89¢ → 96¢ | $1,195 | −$100 −8.4% | — |
| 197d | Okletsgoo | December 31, 2026 | SellNo88¢ → 96¢ | $3,540 | −$336 −9.5% | — |
| 198d | KY321 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo88¢ → 96¢ | $1,545 | −$147 −9.5% | — |
| 199d | Mellow-CodNew account | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $5,791 | +$376 +6.5% | 15 |
| 199d | Ovrrep | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo88¢ → 96¢ | $2,490 | +$222 +8.9% | 12 |
| 199d | taincap2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo86¢ → 96¢ | $3,982 | +$505 +13% | 14 |
| 201d | KY321 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo81¢ → 96¢ | $3,300 | +$625 +19% | 17 |
| 201d | Eyes111 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes18¢ → 4¢ | $1,933 | −$1,546 −80% | 28 |
| 202d | usernameneveraccepted | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo83¢ → 96¢ | $4,491 | +$708 +16% | 15 |
| 202d |  anotherpatrick | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo82¢ → 96¢ | $4,301 | +$753 +18% | 16 |
| 203d |  Donny.T | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo82¢ → 96¢ | $1,640 | +$287 +18% | 16 |
| 209d |  pollaneitor | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo86¢ → 96¢ | $1,031 | +$125 +12% | 13 |
| 214d |  LaPulgaLeo | December 31, 2026 | SellNo87¢ → 96¢ | $1,747 | −$191 −11% | — |
| 222d | Okletsgoo | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo85¢ → 96¢ | $3,400 | +$476 +14% | 14 |
| 227d | Ternary | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes20¢ → 4¢ | $1,238 | −$1,014 −82% | 25 |
| 231d |  csgod2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $2,626 | −$142 −5.4% | — |
| 248d |  WatchTheTape | December 31, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $1,072 | −$39 −3.6% | — |
| 262d | somerisk | December 31, 2026 | SellNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,738 | −$87 −5.0% | — |
| 264d | orlovgraf | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 96¢ | $1,012 | +$48 +4.7% | 9 |
| 268d | Wasteful-FanlightNew account | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $4,091 | +$241 +5.9% | 14 |
| 268d | Upset-InstructionNew account | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $7,092 | +$500 +7.1% | 16 |
| 274d |  twe2nty | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $2,260 | +$159 +7.1% | 11 |
| 275d | Far-Flung-LawNew account | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes12¢ → 4¢ | $1,647 | −$1,146 −70% | 37 |
| 288d |  harryyoung | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,001 | +$59 +5.9% | 10 |
| 288d | LaPulgaLeo | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $1,811 | +$128 +7.1% | 11 |
| 289d |  FranTerC4 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $1,170 | +$83 +7.1% | 11 |
| 340d | cashsquared | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo85¢ → 96¢ | $2,500 | +$326 +13% | 14 |
| 363d |  -nothingburger- | December 31, 2026 | SellNo80¢ → 96¢ | $1,531 | −$302 −20% | — |
| 418d | abuzzin | December 31, 2026 | SellNo79¢ → 96¢ | $2,068 | −$462 −22% | — |
| 420d | abuzzin | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo81¢ → 96¢ | $1,476 | +$280 +19% | 17 |
| 426d | whatifiamright | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes20¢ → 4¢ | $1,500 | −$1,226 −82% | 26 |
| 449d |  debased | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo76¢ → 96¢ | $1,485 | +$387 +26% | 20 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 16¢ for December 31, 2027 means the market gives it about 16%.
