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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300M | 100% | −1 pts | +27 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $200M | 100% | −8 pts | +25 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $400M | 0% | −9 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $50M | 100% | 0 pts | +3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $100M | 100% | +1 pts | +13 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| $500M | 0% | −6 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $1B | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $600M | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $700M | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| $800M | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 230d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,217 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 230d | C03B | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,641 | +$39 +0.4% | 2 |
| 230d | prepoma2 fills | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,313 | +$21 +0.6% | 2 |
| 230d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | $400M | BuyNo100¢ | $2,149 | +$11 +0.5% | 2 |
| 230d | Hpp3 | $400M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,566 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 230d |  creamyyy | $400M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,784 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 230d |  toohorny | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,802 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 230d | sleepin | $300M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,259 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | lokbacker | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,382 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | udontknowanything | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $3,844 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | udontknowanything | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,919 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  lifelined | $300M | BuyNo6¢ → 0¢ | $1,387 | −$1,387 −100% | 4 |
| 231d |  Zonixclub | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,586 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | r8882 fills | $400M | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $4,099 | −$1,028 −25% | — |
| 231d |  zeroprobability | $400M | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$402 +20% | 2 |
| 231d |  Crypto-brave | $300M | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,405 | −$215 −6.3% | — |
| 231d | sportbetss2 fills | $400M | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,510 | +$1,067 +43% | 2 |
| 231d | C03B | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,354 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Adelius | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,678 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | trgyuregnhfgfvfd | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,247 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 231d | GREGFRGF | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,510 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | REGREGFD | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,512 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | 1881aa | $300M | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,820 | −$161 −5.7% | — |
| 231d | Arbgod-himself | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,557 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 231d | mexicola | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,090 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | mexicola3 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,017 | +$25 +0.2% | 2 |
| 231d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | $1B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,989 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 231d |  hack-vc | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,364 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | Ready-Duckling | $400M | SellNo37¢ → 100¢ | $1,057 | −$1,774 −168% | — |
| 231d | Hpp3 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,874 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | 1881aa2 fills | $300M | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,516 | +$207 +8.2% | 2 |
| 231d | kslt | $400M | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$736 +67% | 2 |
| 231d |  BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate | $700M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,328 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 231d | BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,619 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 231d | BenzoateOstylezeneBicarbonate | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,005 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 231d | jimmyhasballs | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 231d | jimmyhasballs | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$9 +0.5% | 2 |
| 232d |  Lakan | $800M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,041 | +$9 +0.9% | 2 |
| 232d | maizi0601 | $600M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | +$49 +3.3% | 2 |
| 232d | running3713 | $300M | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | −$144 −14% | — |
| 232d | cooldataq | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 232d | asqqqw | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,118 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 232d | Mortyhere | $200M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | −$33 −2.4% | — |
| 232d | bitcoinmafia | $200M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,940 | +$60 +2.0% | 2 |
| 232d | Bat-man | $400M | SellNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | −$638 −53% | — |
| 232d |  alanhutton2 fills | $300M | SellNo31¢ → 0¢ | $5,076 | +$5,076 +100% | — |
| 232d | sxcfff2 fills | $300M | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $4,064 | +$1,896 +47% | 2 |
| 232d | MU1314 | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 232d |  blgggggg2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,063 | +$18 +0.4% | 2 |
| 232d | Adelius | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,669 | +$11 +0.6% | 2 |
| 232d | Bat-man | $400M | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | +$282 +21% | 2 |
| 232d | mohandubey | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,253 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 232d |  madril | $300M | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $5,000 | −$5,000 −100% | 2 |
| 232d | Bashiba | $200M | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | −$329 −26% | — |
| 233d | Bashiba | $200M | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,393 | +$195 +14% | 2 |
| 233d | leo134562 fills | $50M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,346 | +$31 +0.9% | 2 |
| 233d | anton534 | $300M | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,174 | +$853 +73% | 2 |
| 233d |  monkelove | $300M | SellNo42¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | +$2,000 +100% | — |
| 234d |  gghtx | $300M | SellNo37¢ → 0¢ | $1,870 | +$1,870 +100% | — |
| 234d | Wise-Exhibition5 fills | $200M | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $20,678 | +$5,256 +25% | 3 |
astasiia450 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fabric's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fabric (https://x.com/FabricFND) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $300M means the market gives it about 100%.