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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $5,500 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $6,000 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,000 | 100% | +1 pts | +89 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,300 | 100% | +19 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,200 | 100% | +5 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,900 | 100% | +29 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,200 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $3,000 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,100 | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,700 | 100% | +2 pts | +40 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,000 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $5,400 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ $3,600 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ $4,600 | 100% | +7 pts | +37 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,450 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ $4,350 | 100% | +49 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 259d | hamitpolat | ↑ $5,400 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,067 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  aldynspeedruns5 fills | ↑ $5,500 | SellNo>99¢ | $17,041 | −$32 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | deepabhi | ↓ $4,200 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,082 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 259d |  FXC | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,279 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly3 fills | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,860 | +$40 +0.6% | 4 |
| 259d | Elias.Thornwell3 fills | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,496 | +$14 +0.2% | 4 |
| 259d | iliabouchouev | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,046 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | iliabouchouev2 fills | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,982 | +$16 +0.3% | 4 |
| 259d | Tame-Rank | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,060 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d |  Ahpo | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,272 | +$19 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | jjdjdjdj | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,796 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | AZwater | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,280 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | AZwater2 fills | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,186 | +$15 +0.3% | 4 |
| 259d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,475 | +$25 +0.2% | 4 |
| 259d | visiblefoxy | ↑ $5,500 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,113 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 259d | ythjsm | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,000 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | C03B2 fills | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,549 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 259d |  largeleeks888 | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,902 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | edge2 | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,544 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | jisds | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,956 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d |  XAE12Archangel2 fills | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,002 | −$155 −2.6% | — |
| 259d | third-eye | ↑ $5,400 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,148 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | third-eye | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,829 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | third-eye | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,204 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | Flancho | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,463 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 259d | iliabouchouev | ↑ $5,500 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,411 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 259d | XAE12Archangel | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,126 | +$4 +0.4% | 4 |
| 260d |  alihanyer2 fills | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,876 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | Elias.Thornwell | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,349 | +$17 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d |  DOCW | ↑ $5,500 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,653 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 260d | painguinou | ↑ $5,500 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,787 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 260d | allen1142 fills | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,473 | +$206 +1.3% | 4 |
| 260d | pb7 | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,022 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | cripes3 | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | 0xWeiler3 | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,510 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | Houdray | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,346 | +$23 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | Ringed-Sermon | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,244 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 260d | jjdjdjdj | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,792 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | yrysyy | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,393 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | 934594gfjj | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,293 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | 191hsyy | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,792 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | 651yj | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | uouit | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,393 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | hkiii | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,293 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | oy96srhrt | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,393 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | painguinou | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,758 | +$35 +2.0% | 4 |
| 260d | evanner | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,107 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 260d | Immaterial-Confectionery | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | +$19 +1.8% | 5 |
| 260d | penbi111 | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | −$16 −0.8% | — |
| 260d | Expensive-IntentionalityNew account | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,828 | −$15 −0.8% | — |
| 260d | hjss | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,991 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 260d |  DaytonaOne | ↑ $6,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,088 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 260d | jantel | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,107 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | marktion | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,191 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | C03B | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,841 | +$171 +2.9% | 4 |
| 260d | Expensive-IntentionalityNew account | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,404 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | Elias.Thornwell2 fills | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,374 | +$15 +0.4% | 4 |
| 260d | XAE12Archangel | ↑ $6,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,984 | +$16 +0.4% | 4 |
| 260d | Jmn | ↑ $5,500 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,414 | +$123 +8.7% | 5 |
| 260d | C03B | ↓ $4,200 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,833 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of January 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for ↑ $5,500 means the market gives it about 0%.