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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 23 | 100% | +11 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Prio to or on April 8 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 9 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 10 | 0% | −46 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 11 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 12 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 13 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 14 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 16 | 0% | −2 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 17 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 18 | 0% | 0 pts | −32 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 19 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | −4 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 22 | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 24 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 25 | 0% | — | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 27 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 29 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | −3 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No release by April 30 | 0% | −7 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176d | bshcoin | April 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,423 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 176d | hellopearlhouse | April 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,543 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 176d | 08A | April 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,421 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 176d | Inexperienced-SentenceNew account | April 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,422 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 176d | hellopearlhouse | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,543 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | Schreezer | April 23 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,398 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 176d | ArchelausButeo | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $55,497 | +$56 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | Test669 | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,860 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d |  duderr | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $22,199 | +$22 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | BrightStars | No release by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,953 | +$36 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | Michael52892 fills | No release by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | everydayregularnormalguy | No release by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | Siziriv3 fills | April 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,653 | +$23 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d | Siziriv3 fills | No release by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,650 | +$26 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d | notawinner99 | April 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,573 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | Ordon | April 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,474 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d |  yen4u2 fills | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,037 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 176d | notawinner99 | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,997 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 176d | Ordon | No release by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $42,749 | +$129 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d |  polhelper | April 23 | BuyYes100¢ | $4,946 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 176d | phsr | No release by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,984 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d | Raw-BasicsNew account | April 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,111 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d |  The-Joker | April 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,530 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 176d | The-Joker | April 24 | BuyNo100¢ | $5,024 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 176d | calm.rabbit | April 23 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | −$30 −2.0% | — |
| 176d | Siziriv2 fills | April 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,167 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 176d | Siziriv2 fills | April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,131 | +$41 +1.3% | 20 |
| 176d | Siziriv2 fills | April 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,168 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 176d |  tourists7 fills | April 23 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $53,172 | +$6,044 +11% | 20 |
| 176d | RIC253 fills | April 23 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $6,273 | +$488 +7.8% | 20 |
| 176d | Animated-Businessman9 fills | April 23 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $34,392 | +$2,243 +6.5% | 20 |
| 176d | cripes3 | April 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$16 +1.4% | 20 |
| 176d |  HowToBasic | April 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,298 | +$23 +1.8% | 20 |
| 176d | HelloKitty3332 fills | April 23 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,263 | +$229 +7.0% | 20 |
| 176d | RIC25 | April 23 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $5,441 | −$679 −12% | — |
| 176d | a68117692 | April 23 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,052 | +$157 +7.6% | 20 |
| 176d | Schreezer | April 23 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,303 | +$94 +7.2% | 20 |
| 176d | kukubaja | April 23 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,050 | −$372 −12% | — |
| 177d |  Noixaref | No release by April 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,872 | +$67 +1.7% | 20 |
| 177d |  epsilonbonds | April 23 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,611 | +$570 +12% | 21 |
| 177d | bimbumbap22 | April 23 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,186 | −$458 −21% | — |
| 177d | bimbumbap222 fills | April 23 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,215 | +$412 +19% | 20 |
| 177d |  Dios777 | April 23 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$76 +7.5% | 20 |
| 177d | kukubaja | April 23 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,632 | +$202 +12% | 21 |
| 177d | Djibooty | April 23 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,528 | +$437 +12% | 21 |
| 177d |  PredictionYogi | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,300 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 177d | Animated-Businessman | No release by April 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$64 +6.2% | 20 |
| 177d | d85jg3979 | April 23 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,991 | +$113 +2.3% | 20 |
| 177d | blastoise123 | April 23 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,389 | +$217 +9.1% | 20 |
| 177d | Dios7772 fills | April 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,339 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 177d | bdltestacco3 fills | April 23 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $5,408 | +$733 +14% | 20 |
| 178d | LiaoJianguo | April 22 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,135 | +$60 +5.3% | 20 |
| 178d | Cryptoxiao | April 23 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,690 | +$117 +6.9% | 20 |
| 178d | The-Joker2 fills | April 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,391 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 178d | LiaoJianguo | April 21 | SellNo100¢ | $1,692 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 178d |  dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider | April 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$49 +2.6% | 20 |
| 178d | epsilonbonds | April 21 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,980 | +$268 +5.4% | 20 |
| 179d | Senritsu | April 21 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$95 +7.8% | 20 |
| 179d | dumbfuqLIQUIDITYprovider2 fills | April 23 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,345 | −$613 −26% | — |
| 180d | 0xe617…f2512 fills | No release by April 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,981 | +$255 +6.4% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET). GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 23 means the market gives it about 100%.