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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 17 | 100% | +92 pts | +76 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Released before February 15 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 15 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 16 | 0% | −9 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 18 | 0% | −17 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 19 | 0% | −11 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 20 | 0% | −34 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 21 | 0% | −6 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 22 | 0% | −3 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 23 | 0% | −7 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 24 | 0% | −4 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 25 | 0% | −5 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 26 | 0% | −4 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 27 | 0% | −3 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | −1 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 1 | 0% | 0 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 2 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 3 | 0% | −1 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 4 | 0% | −3 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 5 | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 6 | 0% | −1 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | −2 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 8 | 0% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 9 | 0% | −2 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 10 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 11 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 12 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 13 | 0% | 0 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 14 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 0% | 0 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 16 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 17 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 18 | 0% | 0 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 19 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 20 | 0% | −1 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 21 | 0% | 0 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 23 | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 24 | 0% | −1 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 25 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 26 | 0% | −1 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 27 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 29 | 0% | −1 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | 0 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No release by March 31 | 0% | −4 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241d |  scout | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,798 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d | vvvix | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,889 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d |  vinii2 fills | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,000 | +$16 +0.4% | 20 |
| 241d |  Xeny | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,686 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d |  Dios777 | February 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,879 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 241d | Ordon | February 17 | BuyYes100¢ | $5,873 | +$30 +0.5% | 20 |
| 241d |  big-short | February 17 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,966 | +$34 +1.7% | 20 |
| 241d | Improbable-Citron | February 19 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,381 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 241d | Weary-Duplexer | February 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d | vvvix | March 1 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,994 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d |  iutwpfal | February 17 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,634 | −$54 −0.8% | — |
| 241d | rated | February 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,045 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 241d | Trustinghorse | February 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 241d | 0xcae0…9f81 | February 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,645 | +$52 +1.1% | 20 |
| 241d |  isWaterWet | February 17 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,421 | −$28 −2.0% | — |
| 241d |  Mr-Krabs | February 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,572 | +$19 +1.2% | 20 |
| 241d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | February 17 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,562 | +$29 +1.1% | 20 |
| 241d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | February 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,165 | +$18 +0.4% | 20 |
| 241d | OraculumNobius2 fills | February 23 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,019 | +$18 +0.6% | 20 |
| 241d | OraculumNobius | February 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,113 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 241d | Embellished-Stepfather | February 17 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,679 | +$85 +5.0% | 20 |
| 241d |  bamesjond | February 17 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,872 | +$380 +6.5% | 20 |
| 241d | iutwpfal3 fills | February 17 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $6,595 | +$1,462 +22% | 20 |
| 242d |  Chims | February 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 242d | jasonshui | February 17 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,918 | +$227 +12% | 20 |
| 242d | hrth5 | February 17 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,885 | +$122 +6.5% | 20 |
| 242d | dhfjy655 | February 17 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$100 +5.2% | 20 |
| 242d | fdbdfg | February 17 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$59 +5.5% | 20 |
| 242d |  PredictionYogi3 fills | February 16 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,028 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 242d | 0xcae0…9f813 fills | February 16 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,821 | +$34 +0.7% | 20 |
| 247d | Number0 | February 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,016 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 247d | Bollys | February 15 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$8 −0.8% | — |
| 249d | Bollys | February 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,017 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "Released before February 15" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "No release by March 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 17 means the market gives it about 100%.