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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 15d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48d | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $50,351 | +$66 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 51d | bondor5 fills | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $30,220 | +$91 +0.3% | 4 |
| 75d | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,779 | +$44 +2.5% | 4 | |
| 79d | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,134 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 | |
| 80d | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,491 | +$36 +1.0% | 4 | |
| 84d | Hugo459440 | Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,635 | +$24 +0.9% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 1¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 1%.