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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥85% by November 3 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ≥20% by June 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ≥20% by April 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ≥30% by June 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 345d |  bamesjond | ≥85% by November 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,253 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 473d |  AgricultureSecretary | ≥20% by June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,815 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 473d | AgricultureSecretary | ≥30% by June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,528 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 473d |  noreasapa2 fills | ≥20% by June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,879 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 473d | noreasapa | ≥30% by June 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,082 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 483d |  JuliusNakamoto | ≥30% by June 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | +$11 +0.9% | 4 |
| 534d | 8396239287 | ≥20% by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,602 | +$17 +0.3% | 4 |
| 534d | wubddh3 fills | ≥20% by April 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,893 | +$21 +0.3% | 4 |
| 550d | Itheros | ≥20% by June 30 | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $37,239 | −$14,482 −39% | — |
| 551d | Itheros | ≥20% by June 30 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $39,308 | +$12,413 +32% | 4 |
| 551d | Itheros | ≥85% by November 3 | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $39,544 | −$9,886 −25% | — |
| 551d | Itheros | ≥85% by November 3 | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $40,038 | +$9,392 +23% | 4 |
This is a market on predictions related to the advancements and implications of the second phase of the ARC AGI project.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for ≥85% by November 3 means the market gives it about 0%.