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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 63% | 0 pts | −11 pts | 58¢ · 67¢ (9¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 5 | 16% | 0 pts | +5 pts | 10¢ · 22¢ (12¢) | $39.6 | in 76d |
| 6 | 3% | — | +1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 7 | 2% | +1 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 8 | 1% | — | — | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 10 | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 9 | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 15+ | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.15K | in 76d |
| 12 | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $31.5 | in 76d |
| 11 | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 14 | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $18.3 | in 76d |
| 13 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $18.3 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27d | bajias | 4 | SellNo23¢ → 37¢ | $2,280 | −$1,430 −63% | — |
| 27d | huoysh | 4 | SellYes78¢ → 63¢ | $7,498 | +$1,459 +19% | — |
| 29d | taishl | 4 | SellNo23¢ → 37¢ | $1,685 | −$986 −59% | — |
| 29d | bajias2 fills | 4 | BuyNo24¢ → 37¢ | $4,724 | +$2,548 +54% | 48 |
| 29d | taishl | 4 | BuyNo24¢ → 37¢ | $1,735 | +$936 +54% | 43 |
| 31d | westdo | 4 | SellYes78¢ → 63¢ | $2,116 | +$399 +19% | — |
| 31d | teacheer | 4 | SellYes78¢ → 63¢ | $6,339 | +$1,194 +19% | — |
| 31d | flowert3 fills | 4 | SellNo23¢ → 37¢ | $5,957 | −$3,581 −60% | — |
| 31d | westdo | 4 | BuyYes77¢ → 63¢ | $2,105 | −$388 −18% | 35 |
| 31d | gym-402 | 4 | BuyYes77¢ → 63¢ | $7,710 | −$1,420 −18% | 35 |
| 31d | easna | 4 | BuyYes77¢ → 63¢ | $7,658 | −$1,410 −18% | 35 |
| 31d | monn | 4 | BuyYes77¢ → 63¢ | $4,454 | −$820 −18% | 35 |
| 31d | teacheer | 4 | BuyYes77¢ → 63¢ | $6,306 | −$1,161 −18% | 35 |
| 32d |  paddaa | 4 | SellYes86¢ → 63¢ | $1,076 | +$291 +27% | — |
| 94d | hklcrypt | 13 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 94d | hklcrypt | 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,252 | $0 0.0% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x5de4…96d03 fills | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,377 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x4810…9af53 fills | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,377 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x5a81…0f143 fills | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,377 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x177a…8e7a | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,116 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x177a…8e7a2 fills | 15+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,231 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x7153…c2173 fills | 15+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,332 | −$8 −0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0xc50e…bff63 fills | 15+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,332 | −$8 −0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0xfd57…131e3 fills | 15+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,332 | −$8 −0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x349d…21363 fills | 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,368 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0xe374…4faa3 fills | 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,368 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x020d…2f523 fills | 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,368 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0xffb7…c6993 fills | 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,368 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 116d | 0x2df8…67713 fills | 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,368 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 118d | hklcrypt | 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,105 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 118d | hklcrypt | 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,106 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 123d | bloom79 | 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,052 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 123d | bloom79 | 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,007 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | 345catto | 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,292 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | 5moon | 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,253 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 126d | Turmeric835 fills | 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,138 | −$2 −0.0% | — |
| 126d | Turmeric839 fills | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,237 | $0 0.0% | 20 |
| 126d | adrian6915 fills | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,117 | +$0 +0.0% | 20 |
| 126d | TableRustic110 fills | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,195 | +$1 +0.0% | 20 |
| 126d | Yawningly11 fills | 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,216 | +$0 +0.0% | 20 |
| 126d | Yawningly | 12 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,020 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 127d | 1991tiger | 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,035 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 131d | nano14347 | 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,243 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 131d | Sharpdfs | 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,065 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 131d | Sharpdfs | 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,120 | −$1 −0.1% | 20 |
| 160d |  ZhangMuZhi..4 fills | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $31,588 | +$46 +0.1% | 20 |
| 160d | d-flow | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,100 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 160d | peace-and-quiet | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,742 | −$36 −2.0% | — |
| 160d | ligmaaaaa | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,546 | +$129 +2.0% | 20 |
| 161d | Marinadfg | 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 197d | mangol-229 | 5 | SellNo72¢ → 84¢ | $4,977 | −$810 −16% | — |
| 197d | whaitsy | 5 | SellNo72¢ → 84¢ | $3,552 | −$578 −16% | — |
| 197d | fandely | 5 | SellNo72¢ → 84¢ | $5,309 | −$864 −16% | — |
| 197d | paotu | 5 | BuyYes27¢ → 16¢ | $5,175 | −$2,099 −41% | 47 |
| 199d | Aria307 | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | SellNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | −$143 −13% | — |
| 199d | lulu957pippa | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,128 | +$174 +15% | 20 |
| 199d | caelan288edward | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,150 | +$178 +15% | 20 |
| 199d | Aria307 | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$165 +15% | 20 |
| 199d | Crushing-Swordfish | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$170 +15% | 20 |
| 199d | tonysinead4851 | Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,044 | +$160 +15% | 20 |
toutiege649 shares
siick468 shares
instanceb186 sharesThis market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 63¢ for 4 means the market gives it about 63%.
