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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisza 12-15% | 100% | +4 pts | +85 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tisza 18%+ | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tisza 15-18% | 0% | −3 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tisza 9-12% | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tisza <9% | 0% | — | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | — | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 181d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,107 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 181d | OraculumNobius | Tisza 9-12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 182d | influenz.eth2 fills | Tisza 9-12% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,282 | +$16 +0.7% | 20 |
| 182d | sdhyky | Tisza 15-18% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 182d | almost-never | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,012 | +$96 +4.8% | 20 |
| 182d | sdhyky2 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,282 | +$218 +6.6% | 20 |
| 182d |  mrworldwide | Tisza 15-18% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,036 | +$108 +5.3% | 20 |
| 183d | tamas92k | Tisza 12-15% | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | −$232 −21% | — |
| 183d | Quick-Witted-Appetiser7 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $21,676 | +$1,237 +5.7% | 21 |
| 183d | tamas92k | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$124 +11% | 20 |
| 184d | Naropoly2 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,216 | +$101 +4.6% | 20 |
| 184d | dzsibenaja | Tisza 9-12% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$12 +1.2% | 20 |
| 185d | Railcool | Tisza 18%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,118 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 185d | tanker23 | Tisza 12-15% | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,405 | −$147 −10% | — |
| 186d | JPLP2 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,938 | +$208 +7.1% | 20 |
| 186d | JaPierdoleBober | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | +$55 +4.0% | 20 |
| 186d | Quick-Witted-Appetiser2 fills | Tisza 15-18% | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,104 | +$426 +7.0% | 21 |
| 186d | josibavaze | Tisza 12-15% | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,374 | −$260 −11% | — |
| 186d | josibavaze | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$134 +5.4% | 20 |
| 187d | mymacbook3 fills | Tisza 15-18% | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $5,862 | +$574 +9.8% | 20 |
| 187d | pers0n712 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,430 | +$320 +13% | 20 |
| 187d | Crock95 | Tisza 12-15% | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,453 | −$88 −6.0% | — |
| 187d | timetowander2 fills | Tisza 15-18% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,367 | +$478 +6.5% | 20 |
| 187d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Tisza 12-15% | SellYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | −$220 −18% | — |
| 187d | Railcool3 fills | Tisza 12-15% | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $10,593 | −$2,326 −22% | — |
| 187d | influenz.eth | Tisza 18%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,280 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 187d | medvesajt2 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $4,756 | +$912 +19% | 20 |
| 187d | lava-lava | Tisza 12-15% | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $2,097 | +$492 +23% | 20 |
| 187d | pers0n71 | Tisza 12-15% | SellYes46¢ → 100¢ | $1,331 | −$1,554 −117% | — |
| 187d | timetowander2 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $4,882 | −$4,882 −100% | 20 |
| 187d |  Casdifer5 fills | Tisza 12-15% | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $12,446 | −$12,446 −100% | 20 |
| 187d |  LEONIDOVITCH1983 | Tisza 12-15% | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $3,748 | −$3,748 −100% | 20 |
| 187d | medvesajt2 fills | Tisza 15-18% | BuyYes78¢ → 0¢ | $3,778 | −$3,778 −100% | 20 |
| 187d | LEONIDOVITCH19832 fills | Tisza 18%+ | BuyYes41¢ → 0¢ | $2,615 | −$2,615 −100% | 22 |
| 187d | lava-lava3 fills | Tisza 18%+ | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $9,875 | +$3,889 +39% | 20 |
| 187d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Tisza 18%+ | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | +$496 +43% | 20 |
| 192d | Nice-Skunk | Tisza <9% | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $1,149 | −$1,149 −100% | 22 |
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Tisza 12-15% means the market gives it about 100%.