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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 25 | 100% | +57 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 24 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 26 | 0% | −26 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 27 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 28 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 29 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No Strike | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 23 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 22 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 386d | AngCh | September 25 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,643 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 387d |  25usdc | September 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  duderr4 fills | September 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,494 | +$23 +0.2% | 20 |
| 387d |  Car3 fills | September 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,092 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  Ahpo | September 25 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,603 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 387d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | September 25 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,509 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 387d | Vacant-Fur | September 25 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $17,141 | −$199 −1.2% | — |
| 387d | cigarettes | September 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | cigarettes | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | cigarettes | September 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | cigarettes | September 27 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | cigarettes | September 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  classified | September 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | classified | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d | Car | September 29 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,590 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 387d | Car | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  ILOVEYOUBABYZZ4 fills | September 25 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,474 | +$226 +5.1% | 20 |
| 387d |  Pulser | September 25 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,361 | +$55 +2.3% | 20 |
| 387d |  Dumbeldor20033 fills | September 25 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,800 | +$158 +4.2% | 20 |
| 387d |  RichDaD | September 25 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,899 | +$126 +6.6% | 20 |
| 387d |  roadmapper | September 25 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,194 | +$345 +6.6% | 20 |
| 387d | AngCh | September 25 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$145 +9.6% | 21 |
| 387d |  aldynspeedruns | September 24 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,881 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 387d | JustABet | September 24 | SellNo>99¢ | $8,980 | −$26 −0.3% | — |
| 387d | Ram19 | September 25 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | +$92 +8.7% | 21 |
| 387d | aldynspeedruns | September 24 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,866 | +$17 +0.9% | 20 |
| 387d | tanazana2 fills | September 25 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$466 +16% | 21 |
| 387d | Nebula-Croissant | September 24 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,073 | −$27 −2.6% | — |
| 387d |  Isjsksjs2 fills | September 24 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,619 | −$70 −2.7% | — |
| 387d | Nebula-Croissant | September 24 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$250 +25% | 21 |
Babodriver968,222 shares
ryunose6,468 sharesThis market will resolve according to the first day ET Israel next initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate. This market will resolve to "No strike" if no qualifying strike is conducted by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 25 means the market gives it about 100%.