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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 100% | +6 pts | +80 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 5-9 | 0% | −5 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 10-14 | 0% | −1 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 15-19 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-24 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25-29 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 30-34 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 35-39 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-44 | 0% | 0 pts | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 45-49 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50-54 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 55-59 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 10, 12:00 PM ET and July 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <5 means the market gives it about 100%.