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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1B | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $2B | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| $3B | 0% | −19 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $4B | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $5B | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| $6B | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289d | CHIB6662 fills | $3B | SellNo>99¢ | $23,826 | −$24 −0.1% | — |
| 289d | poorishly | $2B | SellYes>99¢ | $1,014 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 289d |  Nostdam | $2B | SellYes>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 289d |  bamesjond | $3B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,203 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 289d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | $2B | SellYes>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 289d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | $2B | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,453 | +$14 +0.1% | 2 |
| 289d | 0xdragon395 | $3B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,062 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 289d | jwp9999 | $1B | SellYes>99¢ | $19,980 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 290d |  brayknows | $3B | SellNo>99¢ | $13,728 | −$57 −0.4% | — |
| 290d | aisux2 fills | $3B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $97,676 | +$506 +0.5% | 2 |
| 290d | jwp99993 fills | $1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $196,638 | +$232 +0.1% | 2 |
| 290d | maru-xan | $3B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,756 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 290d |  Anjun | $2B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,048 | +$29 +0.7% | 2 |
| 290d |  TruongMyLan | $2B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,965 | +$35 +0.7% | 2 |
| 290d |  one8tyfive | $2B | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,762 | −$79 −0.9% | — |
| 290d |  Satashi | $1B | SellYes>99¢ | $1,300 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 290d |  okalright | $1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,985 | +$15 +0.3% | 2 |
| 290d |  elmcap2 | $1B | SellYes>99¢ | $23,563 | −$71 −0.3% | — |
| 290d | aisux | $2B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $27,109 | +$191 +0.7% | 2 |
| 290d |  Cointraders | $3B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 290d | noneaa | $1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,520 | +$9 +0.2% | 2 |
| 290d | Mona-0x843 fills | $3B | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $16,167 | +$2,476 +15% | 2 |
| 290d | plantostar | $2B | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | +$23 +1.9% | 2 |
| 290d | BigDataEnergy | $5B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,031 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 290d |  Goopster | $5B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,494 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 290d | Goopster | $6B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,003 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 290d | Goopster | $1B | SellYes>99¢ | $8,774 | −$26 −0.3% | — |
| 290d | Cooperative-Whale | $3B | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,143 | −$169 −2.1% | — |
| 290d |  peggysage | $2B | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,762 | −$124 −3.3% | — |
| 290d |  mmarbles | $3B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,795 | +$16 +0.9% | 2 |
| 290d | R2.D2 | $2B | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,346 | −$11 −0.8% | — |
| 290d | R2.D2 | $2B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,301 | +$10 +0.8% | 2 |
| 290d | justamerchant | $1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,589 | +$9 +0.2% | 2 |
| 290d | CHIB6667 fills | $3B | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $33,198 | +$2,151 +6.5% | 2 |
| 290d |  breakingcute | $3B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,289 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 290d | aisux | $4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,909 | +$23 +0.1% | 2 |
| 290d |  yourQuantGuy | $2B | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$63 +2.1% | 2 |
| 290d | Elliptical-TravelerNew account | $2B | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,385 | −$41 −3.0% | — |
| 290d | brayknows2 fills | $3B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $13,300 | +$485 +3.6% | 2 |
| 290d | aisux | $5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,086 | +$8 +0.1% | 2 |
| 290d | JigglyPuff | $4B | SellNo>99¢ | $4,814 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 290d | Emperorvikky | $3B | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,031 | −$62 −2.0% | — |
| 290d |  enri.hl8 fills | $5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $32,020 | +$122 +0.4% | 2 |
| 290d | Elliptical-TravelerNew account | $2B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$15 +1.1% | 2 |
| 290d | Marlboro50-50 | $3B | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,156 | +$129 +3.1% | 2 |
| 290d | bamesjond | $3B | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,907 | +$64 +3.4% | 2 |
| 290d | Bulky-Axis | $3B | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,044 | −$120 −3.9% | — |
| 290d |  SchrodingerBet | $4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,970 | +$30 +0.2% | 2 |
| 290d |  PlsDontCry | $3B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,506 | +$56 +3.7% | 2 |
| 290d | probability12 fills | $1B | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $15,282 | +$264 +1.7% | 2 |
| 290d | furiamr | $2B | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,345 | −$9 −0.7% | — |
| 290d | pupsiko | $1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,964 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 290d |  sezo.eth | $3B | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,087 | +$163 +5.3% | 2 |
| 290d |  onchaingooner | $3B | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,000 | +$317 +5.3% | 2 |
| 290d | Cooperative-Whale2 fills | $3B | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,496 | +$817 +11% | 2 |
| 290d | Emperorvikky2 fills | $3B | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $5,519 | +$666 +12% | 2 |
| 290d | Matelleti | $2B | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,500 | +$14 +0.4% | 2 |
| 290d | geraldhew89 | $4B | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$15 +0.3% | 2 |
| 290d |  alihanyer | $3B | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $3,040 | +$403 +13% | 2 |
| 290d | tmry-st | $5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,171 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
TimeTraveler118,657 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Lighter doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $1B means the market gives it about 100%.