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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25–1.29ºC | 100% | +5 pts | +35 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <1.10ºC | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.10–1.14ºC | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.15–1.19ºC | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.20–1.24ºC | 0% | −3 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >1.29ºC | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 190d |  ballzi. | 1.25–1.29ºC | SellYes>99¢ | $1,174 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 190d |  DiamondHands11 | >1.29ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,633 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 190d | DiamondHands11 | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,320 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | influenz.eth2 fills | 1.20–1.24ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,177 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | influenz.eth2 fills | 1.10–1.14ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,177 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | influenz.eth2 fills | <1.10ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,177 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | russell1103202 fills | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,736 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 191d | influenz.eth2 fills | >1.29ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,177 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | 0xba2c…bf172 fills | 1.10–1.14ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,127 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 191d | 0xba2c…bf173 fills | <1.10ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,210 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 191d | 0xba2c…bf173 fills | 1.15–1.19ºC | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,863 | +$40 +0.7% | 4 |
| 192d | 0xba2c…bf17 | >1.29ºC | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,671 | +$60 +3.6% | 5 |
| 193d | russell110320 | >1.29ºC | SellYes68¢ → 0¢ | $2,602 | +$2,602 +100% | — |
| 195d |  Rr55 | 1.15–1.19ºC | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,962 | +$38 +1.9% | 4 |
| 195d | russell110320 | >1.29ºC | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $1,677 | −$1,677 −100% | 6 |
| 196d | russell1103202 fills | 1.20–1.24ºC | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,271 | +$280 +12% | 5 |
| 206d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | <1.10ºC | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$20 +1.8% | 4 |
| 208d | 3874110074156118140922178973873 fills | >1.29ºC | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | +$298 +6.3% | 4 |
| 212d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,040 | −$1,040 −100% | 4 |
| 213d | russell1103202 fills | 1.10–1.14ºC | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,474 | +$274 +11% | 4 |
| 214d | russell110320 | <1.10ºC | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,497 | +$79 +5.3% | 4 |
| 230d | zenith188 | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $1,504 | −$1,504 −100% | 4 |
| 231d |  CrazymadTrad | 1.15–1.19ºC | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $9,192 | −$9,192 −100% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1.25–1.29ºC means the market gives it about 100%.