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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | $15K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37m | Vietnam73 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $38,013 | +$32 +0.1% | 7 |
| 25d | gorovi9 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $26,900 | +$1,362 +5.1% | 10 |
| 37d |  allenzzz | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $3,020 | −$47 −1.5% | — |
| 37d |  forever123 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $1,992 | +$12 +0.6% | 6 |
| 37d | allenzzz2 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $3,977 | +$64 +1.6% | 8 |
| 47d |  Trashbag | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $8,460 | +$131 +1.5% | 8 |
| 68d | Sunbe | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,027 | −$30 −1.5% | — |
| 88d |  J3lcExePrd1KE5M4 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $6,995 | +$543 +7.8% | 12 |
| 91d | NeH4 fills | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $22,570 | +$2,305 +10% | 13 |
| 95d | NeH | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $2,197 | −$58 −2.6% | — |
| 137d |  Aq4ExePrd22Jn | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $3,000 | +$172 +5.7% | 9 |
| 155d | Utoya | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $1,720 | +$189 +11% | 8 |
| 319d |  wllstrt | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $1,392 | +$135 +9.7% | 7 |
| 328d |  SwampDust | NATO article 5 before 2027? | SellNo78¢ → 95¢ | $1,280 | −$284 −22% | — |
| 340d | SwampDust | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 95¢ | $1,393 | +$171 +12% | 8 |
LlamaLoco000028,410 shares
meagainsttheworld4,000 sharesTrashbag12,729 sharesJ3lcExePrd1KE5M11,966 sharesAq4ExePrd22Jn8,275 sharesforever1232,100 sharesIf any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 5%.