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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanae Takaichi | 100% | +1 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| No new PM | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Shinjirō Koizumi | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yoshimasa Hayashi | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Taro Kono | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Toshimitsu Motegi | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Takayuki Kobayashi | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yōko Kamikawa | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yoshihiko Noda | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yuichiro Tamaki | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Election called | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 361d | Nikuman | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes>99¢ | $3,671 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | Dapper-Grandfather3 fills | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $10,609 | −$449 −4.2% | — |
| 361d | Scaly-Champion2 fills | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes>99¢ | $13,463 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | Imperial1 | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes>99¢ | $3,041 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 361d |  CCPig | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $42,758 | +$43 +0.1% | 4 |
| 361d | goose25 | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes>99¢ | $1,493 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 361d |  alienware34 | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes>99¢ | $19,639 | −$57 −0.3% | — |
| 361d |  MasonsConqueredRome3 fills | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $23,411 | +$43 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d | MasonsConqueredRome2 fills | Yoshihiko Noda | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,223 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 361d | uzwin | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes>99¢ | $2,721 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 361d | iamgood898 | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,931 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 361d |  spartanX | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes>99¢ | $2,316 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 361d | VvVv | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,952 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d | aviato | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,980 | +$20 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d | OkaneKasegu | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,988 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d |  duderr3 fills | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,960 | +$40 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d | Michael5289 | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d |  Dr.mett | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d | hsy5652 | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d |  probability | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,613 | +$27 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d | tktt | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,373 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d |  Trolll6 fills | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $19,944 | +$632 +3.2% | 4 |
| 361d | tktt | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 361d | d4cc | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,738 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 361d |  Cookedtan3 fills | No new PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,771 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 361d | Cookedtan | Yuichiro Tamaki | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 361d | Cookedtan | Yoshihiko Noda | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 361d | Cookedtan | Election called | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 362d | Ronaldo2100 | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,515 | −$235 −2.2% | — |
| 362d | BurningTime | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 |
| 362d | Back-Restaurant2 fills | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$55 +1.5% | 4 |
| 362d |  knrad2 fills | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,573 | +$22 +0.8% | 4 |
| 362d | grerhrtrr | Yoshihiko Noda | SellNo>99¢ | $1,500 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 362d | grerhrtrr | Yoshihiko Noda | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,502 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 362d | cigarettes5 fills | Yuichiro Tamaki | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,257 | +$152 +2.1% | 4 |
| 362d | cigarettes4 fills | Yoshihiko Noda | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,305 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 362d | cigarettes4 fills | No new PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,296 | +$15 +0.2% | 4 |
| 362d | cigarettes5 fills | Election called | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,570 | +$31 +0.4% | 20 |
| 362d | cigarettes4 fills | Shinjirō Koizumi | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,205 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 362d | Imperial1 | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$44 +1.5% | 4 |
| 362d |  0x2jsdkvfhjaklsdfnkjwebnksdnwerewe | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,600 | +$24 +1.5% | 4 |
| 362d |  scottilicious5 fills | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $29,257 | +$549 +1.9% | 4 |
| 362d | austintheory | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | −$35 −3.0% | — |
| 362d | burrito338 | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,613 | +$94 +2.0% | 4 |
| 362d | tmry-st | No new PM | SellNo>99¢ | $1,411 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 362d |  1-98 | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,164 | −$36 −3.1% | — |
| 362d | xxsi | Taro Kono | SellNo>99¢ | $1,234 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 362d | xxsi | Taro Kono | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,235 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 362d | hose3 fills | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,419 | −$115 −2.6% | — |
| 363d | negribvueos | No new PM | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,547 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 363d | negribvueos | No new PM | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,555 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | daddyjerome | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,053 | −$27 −2.6% | — |
| 363d | endxd | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,600 | +$87 +2.4% | 4 |
| 363d |  Wagner275738 | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | +$28 +2.5% | 4 |
| 363d |  MrBobo | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,238 | +$113 +2.7% | 4 |
| 363d | Healingriver | Sanae Takaichi | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,613 | −$79 −3.0% | — |
| 363d | tmry-st | Shinjirō Koizumi | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 363d | tmry-st | Shinjirō Koizumi | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 363d | Drab-Regulator | Sanae Takaichi | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$58 +2.9% | 4 |
| 363d | 4gevs85s | Yōko Kamikawa | SellNo>99¢ | $1,470 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
EmmanuelQuimby6 sharesThis market will resolve according to the next appointed Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba. Any PM formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor will qualify. If no new PM is appointed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new PM”. If early general elections are called before the new PM has officially been appointed, this market will resolve to “Election called”. The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Sanae Takaichi means the market gives it about 100%.