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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| John Healey | 0% | −31 pts | −71 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 75d |
| Al Carns | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | in 75d |
| Luke Pollard | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| Douglas Alexander | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| Heidi Alexander | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | in 75d |
| Yvette Cooper | 0% | −8 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| Louise Haigh | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| Pat McFadden | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| No next Defence Secretary in 2026 | 0% | −14 pts | −9 pts | — · 1¢ | — | in 75d |
| Person A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| Person Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88d |  abhionpoly | John Healey | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,822 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 88d |  C6H6 | Al Carns | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,176 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 88d | abhionpoly | No next Defence Secretary in 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,856 | +$20 +1.1% | 4 |
| 88d | M888 | John Healey | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,531 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 88d | M888 | Yvette Cooper | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,720 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 88d | buoys | John Healey | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,110 | +$25 +2.2% | 4 |
| 88d |  Pitchforkk | John Healey | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,430 | +$25 +1.0% | 4 |
| 88d | Evwo-Jaza2 fills | John Healey | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,791 | +$282 +7.4% | 4 |
| 95d | nelbal8486 | John Healey | BuyYes63¢ → 0¢ | $2,129 | −$2,129 −100% | 4 |
| 100d | whig | Al Carns | BuyNo65¢ → 100¢ | $3,094 | +$1,650 +53% | 4 |
This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed as the next Defence Secretary of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Defence Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Defence Secretary is appointed, or Dan Jarvis is re-appointed as Defence Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Defence Secretary in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Other means the market gives it about 100%.