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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20–1.24ºC | 100% | +11 pts | +44 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <1.10ºC | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.10–1.14ºC | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.15–1.19ºC | 0% | −4 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.25–1.29ºC | 0% | −7 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >1.29ºC | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 311d |  cruzzzz | 1.20–1.24ºC | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,756 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 311d | qwe258 | 1.20–1.24ºC | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,574 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 311d |  ballzi. | 1.20–1.24ºC | SellYes>99¢ | $1,205 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 312d |  AgricultureSecretary | 1.20–1.24ºC | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,283 | +$103 +3.1% | 5 |
| 314d | russell1103202 fills | 1.20–1.24ºC | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $2,780 | +$1,573 +57% | 4 |
| 315d | russell1103203 fills | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $5,792 | +$1,527 +26% | 4 |
| 315d | balerinacapuchina | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,746 | +$273 +16% | 5 |
| 315d | balerinacapuchina | 1.15–1.19ºC | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 6 |
| 315d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | <1.10ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,157 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 315d | flow-trader-at-optiver | 1.10–1.14ºC | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,156 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 315d | flow-trader-at-optiver | >1.29ºC | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,149 | +$10 +0.8% | 4 |
| 317d |  gopfan2 | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyYes30¢ → 0¢ | $1,108 | −$1,108 −100% | 6 |
| 321d |  Krip. | 1.25–1.29ºC | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | +$237 +20% | 4 |
| 326d | 3874110074156118140922178973872 fills | 1.10–1.14ºC | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,239 | +$19 +0.8% | 4 |
gopfan24,907 shares
Cookedtan228 sharesThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1.20–1.24ºC means the market gives it about 100%.