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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >15% | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >25% | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >20% | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| >10% | 0% | −36 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 322d | k4.0.4 | >10% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,055 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Abandoned-Cabbage4 fills | >20% | SellNo>99¢ | $12,142 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 322d | Abandoned-Cabbage | >15% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,778 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 322d |  AgricultureSecretary | >15% | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,950 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 322d |  Allinnothing | >15% | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,088 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 322d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | >15% | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,769 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 322d | Allinnothing | >10% | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,839 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 322d | AgricultureSecretary | >25% | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,629 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 322d | ScottyNooo3 fills | >25% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $18,941 | +$112 +0.6% | 20 |
| 322d | ScottyNooo | >20% | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,853 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d | ezbruh | >15% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,086 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 323d | Abandoned-Cabbage | >25% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,971 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 323d | 0x6688a1a91697cbafdcdf893c25e2273ab6db67cd | >15% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,089 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 323d |  JoeMaserati | >15% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,087 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 323d | JoeMaserati | >10% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,146 | +$66 +3.1% | 20 |
| 323d | Abandoned-Cabbage | >15% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,256 | +$26 +2.0% | 20 |
| 323d |  Alphax | >15% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,157 | +$202 +6.4% | 22 |
| 324d | blunderbot | >25% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,008 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
| 324d | Abandoned-Cabbage2 fills | >25% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,092 | +$46 +1.5% | 20 |
| 324d | Abandoned-Cabbage2 fills | >20% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,460 | +$286 +3.4% | 21 |
| 324d |  Starsee | >20% | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,681 | +$112 +4.2% | 21 |
| 324d | advyq | >20% | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | −$53 −5.3% | — |
| 324d | advyq | >20% | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$53 +5.3% | 21 |
| 324d |  MisTKy3 | >25% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,732 | +$146 +3.1% | 21 |
| 324d | big6big8 | >15% | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,617 | +$359 +22% | 25 |
| 324d | big6big8 | >25% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 21 |
| 324d | big6big8 | >20% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,462 | +$157 +6.4% | 22 |
| 324d |  MasonsConqueredRome | >15% | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $1,657 | +$443 +27% | 24 |
| 325d |  SupremeLeader12 | >15% | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,043 | −$1,043 −100% | 25 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if “Yes” reaches 15% or above in the December 31, 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025) during the 4-hour period between 10:00 AM and 1:59 PM ET on November 28, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Yes” will be considered to have reached 15% or above for the specified four-hour period if "Yes” is priced at least 15 cents for at least half of the minutes. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the Dec 10, 2025 “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on [X] ([X]Link) with the range set to "6H" and the candle set to “1m” or through the “Resolution” tab on [X] with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for >15% means the market gives it about 0%.
