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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7–8 | 100% | +8 pts | +23 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 0 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1–2 | 0% | −1 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 3–4 | 0% | +2 pts | +7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5–6 | 0% | −4 pts | −73 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 9–10 | 0% | −6 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 11+ | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d | Coordinated-Leather | 11+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,362 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | Michael5289 | 7–8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,278 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 258d | lan031043 | 7–8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,130 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d |  ZhangMuZhi.. | 5–6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,520 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | qwe258 | 5–6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,993 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 266d | Coordinated-Leather | 11+ | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,088 | +$138 +13% | 20 |
| 285d | xuegao1 | 7–8 | SellNo79¢ → 0¢ | $2,210 | +$2,210 +100% | — |
| 285d | mogucun1 | 7–8 | SellNo79¢ → 0¢ | $2,049 | +$2,049 +100% | — |
| 285d | kaiche | 7–8 | SellNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,659 | +$2,659 +100% | — |
| 285d | xuegao1 | 7–8 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,236 | −$2,236 −100% | 20 |
| 285d | mogucun1 | 7–8 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,075 | −$2,075 −100% | 20 |
| 285d | kaiche | 7–8 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,669 | −$2,669 −100% | 20 |
| 285d | suanzao | 7–8 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $3,174 | −$3,174 −100% | 20 |
| 289d |  Ahpo | 3–4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,554 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 289d |  tupac | 1–2 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,000 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d |  branson69 | 0 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,267 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 291d |  Dr.mett | 0 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,909 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 291d | Ahpo2 fills | 0 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,780 | +$220 +2.0% | 20 |
| 294d | HLB-377 | 11+ | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,949 | +$552 +28% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct vessels that Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or U.S. armed forces announce were struck by U.S. armed forces while designated as narco-terrorist targets between market creation and January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 7–8 means the market gives it about 100%.