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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 250+ | 100% | +6 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <190 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190–204 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 205–219 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220–234 | 0% | −4 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 235–249 | 0% | −1 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 250d | MerlinTheWizard | 250+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,118 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 250d | MistahFox | 250+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,112 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 250d | 2997qwer | 250+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,128 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 250d |  pepeFight | 250+ | SellYes>99¢ | $1,363 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 251d | hypertondemo | 250+ | SellYes>99¢ | $3,757 | −$19 −0.5% | — |
| 251d | 2997qwer | 250+ | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$137 +6.8% | 10 |
| 251d | firedby21 | 250+ | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,850 | +$150 +5.3% | 10 |
| 252d | pepeFight | 250+ | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,218 | +$151 +12% | 13 |
| 252d | influenz.eth | 190–204 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,035 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 252d | influenz.eth | 205–219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,035 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 252d | influenz.eth | <190 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,035 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 252d | NagaBit | 250+ | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,389 | +$292 +12% | 13 |
| 252d | influenz.eth | 220–234 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,035 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 252d |  President-XI | 250+ | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,467 | +$181 +12% | 13 |
kamoshirenai214 sharesGeneral elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 250+ means the market gives it about 100%.