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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >$4B | 100% | +1 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| >$800M | 100% | — | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| >$1B | 100% | — | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| >$2B | 100% | — | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| >$6B | 100% | +5 pts | +56 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| >$8B | 100% | +36 pts | +76 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 386d | alex562 | >$6B | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d |  Allinnothing | >$8B | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,855 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d |  Trenches | >$8B | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,093 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 386d | amis | >$6B | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 386d | sleepin | >$4B | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,238 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | OracleOfPR | >$4B | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,309 | −$167 −1.8% | — |
| 386d |  alwaysthrivin | >$6B | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,813 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 386d | opopopopop | >$8B | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,128 | +$251 +3.1% | 20 |
| 386d | quanterty2 fills | >$8B | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,600 | +$293 +3.9% | 20 |
| 386d | 888888888888888882 fills | >$4B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,500 | +$71 +0.7% | 20 |
| 387d | quanterty | >$6B | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$49 +1.6% | 20 |
| 387d | upasna2 fills | >$8B | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $4,203 | +$3,546 +84% | 20 |
| 388d | 0xGabru | >$6B | BuyNo29¢ → 0¢ | $2,450 | −$2,450 −100% | 24 |
| 388d |  elmcap2 | >$2B | BuyYes>99¢ | $18,296 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | elmcap2 | >$1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $40,046 | +$40 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | elmcap2 | >$800M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,432 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 388d | amis | >$4B | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,179 | −$138 −2.7% | — |
| 389d | elmcap2 | >$4B | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | +$46 +2.8% | 20 |
| 389d | 888888888888888882 fills | >$2B | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,996 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 389d |  manekineko2 fills | >$4B | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,067 | +$60 +1.2% | 20 |
| 389d | minsciy | >$4B | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | −$39 −2.9% | — |
| 390d | manekineko2 fills | >$2B | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,217 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 390d | 88888888888888888 | >$2B | SellYes>99¢ | $1,003 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 390d |  donjo | >$800M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,567 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 390d | amis | >$2B | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,792 | −$18 −1.0% | — |
| 390d |  Nouveau | >$800M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,498 | −$58 −0.5% | — |
| 390d | amis | >$1B | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | −$40 −1.6% | — |
| 390d |  sashadidntwakeup4 fills | >$1B | SellYes>99¢ | $6,873 | −$16 −0.2% | — |
| 390d | sashadidntwakeup4 fills | >$1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,882 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 391d | GMor | >$2B | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,086 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 391d | amis | >$4B | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | +$87 +6.6% | 20 |
| 396d | Nouveau | >$800M | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,500 | +$31 +0.3% | 20 |
| 403d |  bigting | >$800M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,488 | −$18 −1.2% | — |
| 408d | metatron69 | >$800M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,471 | −$18 −1.2% | — |
| 408d | New-EpeeNew account | >$4B | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $2,522 | −$905 −36% | — |
| 410d | amis | >$1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,179 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 411d | bigting | >$4B | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$57 +5.7% | 20 |
| 414d | imakebigbets2 fills | >$6B | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $6,877 | +$3,854 +56% | 20 |
| 415d | New-EpeeNew account | >$4B | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,260 | +$678 +30% | 32 |
| 416d | grubby-209 | >$4B | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $8,630 | −$4,886 −57% | — |
| 419d | grubby-209 | >$4B | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $10,681 | +$2,851 +27% | 20 |
| 420d |  h4ck-vc | >$4B | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,010 | +$303 +30% | 20 |
| 420d | GodHand | >$4B | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,390 | −$596 −43% | — |
| 420d | OracleOfPR | >$4B | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $4,418 | +$1,894 +43% | 20 |
| 420d | 3daysgrays | >$4B | SellNo27¢ → 0¢ | $1,784 | +$1,784 +100% | — |
| 420d | geofrydaymore | >$4B | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$857 +43% | 20 |
| 420d | Scoobydoo12 fills | >$4B | SellNo31¢ → 0¢ | $3,723 | +$3,723 +100% | — |
| 421d | donjo | >$800M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,044 | +$32 +1.6% | 20 |
| 421d | egas | >$4B | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | −$882 −75% | — |
| 421d |  sipp-2 fills | >$800M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $9,500 | +$147 +1.5% | 20 |
| 421d | StoicMule | >$4B | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $2,058 | −$1,457 −71% | — |
| 421d | StoicMule | >$4B | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,647 | +$609 +37% | 20 |
| 421d | GodHand | >$4B | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$950 +48% | 20 |
| 421d | metatron69 | >$800M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,370 | +$30 +2.2% | 20 |
| 421d | Spice-511 | >$4B | SellNo39¢ → 0¢ | $1,638 | +$1,638 +100% | — |
| 422d | vangadamus | >$4B | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$614 +61% | 20 |
| 431d |  mewmew1 | >$4B | SellNo46¢ → 0¢ | $1,521 | +$1,521 +100% | — |
| 432d | kllllj | >$1B | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,035 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 434d | mewmew1 | >$4B | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $2,381 | −$2,381 −100% | 20 |
| 435d | Spice-511 | >$4B | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $5,025 | −$5,025 −100% | 20 |
kickstandhater7,840 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Plasma's token is greater than $800,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Plasma doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for >$4B means the market gives it about 100%.