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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 10% | — | −4 pts | 8¢ · 12¢ (4¢) | — | in 440d |
| $100M | 10% | +1 pts | −4 pts | 8¢ · 13¢ (5¢) | — | in 440d |
| $200M | 11% | +2 pts | −1 pts | 7¢ · 16¢ (9¢) | — | in 440d |
| $300M | 9% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 8¢ · 10¢ (2¢) | — | in 440d |
| $800M | 5% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | — | in 440d |
| $500M | 7% | — | 0 pts | 6¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | — | in 440d |
| $400M | 12% | 0 pts | +2 pts | 10¢ · 14¢ (4¢) | — | in 440d |
| $1B | 3% | — | +1 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 440d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82d | 0x8931…a90c | $100M | BuyNo88¢ → 90¢ | $1,955 | +$42 +2.2% | 2 |
| 82d | 0x8931…a90c | $50M | BuyNo89¢ → 90¢ | $1,732 | +$29 +1.7% | 2 |
| 83d | BetterHold | $50M | SellNo88¢ → 90¢ | $1,088 | −$28 −2.6% | — |
| 141d | randomlypunting | $50M | SellNo79¢ → 90¢ | $1,581 | −$219 −14% | — |
| 151d | BetterHold | $100M | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,194 | −$15 −1.3% | 2 |
| 151d | shprota | $100M | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,630 | −$10 −0.6% | 2 |
| 216d | shprota | $50M | BuyNo93¢ → 90¢ | $1,453 | −$44 −3.1% | 2 |
| 219d | randomlypunting2 fills | $50M | BuyNo90¢ | $3,016 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 219d | randomlypunting | $100M | BuyNo95¢ → 90¢ | $1,522 | −$73 −4.8% | 2 |
| 220d |  MajoriT | $50M | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,065 | −$12 −1.1% | 2 |
| 226d |  1sk | $200M | SellNo95¢ → 89¢ | $1,350 | +$90 +6.7% | — |
| 226d | 1sk | $300M | SellNo97¢ → 91¢ | $1,363 | +$83 +6.1% | — |
| 227d | MarioCrypto1 | $50M | BuyNo90¢ | $1,119 | $0 0.0% | 2 |
| 227d | 1sk | $200M | BuyNo91¢ → 89¢ | $1,506 | −$35 −2.3% | 2 |
| 227d | 1sk | $300M | BuyNo91¢ | $1,283 | −$3 −0.3% | 2 |
| 227d |  zhupercyclist | $50M | BuyNo72¢ → 90¢ | $3,600 | +$900 +25% | 2 |
2B9S600 shares
Suhaslb94239 shares
Dr.PNL113 sharesMajoriT1,780 shares
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b041,775 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 10¢ for $50M means the market gives it about 10%.