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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >1.19 | 100% | +4 pts | +11 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <1.00 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.00-1.04 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.05-1.09 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.10-1.14 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1.15-1.19 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 337d |  aenews2 | >1.19 | SellYes>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | 0x955c…990f | >1.19 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,664 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d |  cookiejar | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo>99¢ | $136,067 | +$136 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | aenews24 fills | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo>99¢ | $271,918 | +$274 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | Wapuerne | 1.05-1.09 | SellNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | aenews27 fills | >1.19 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,508 | +$204 +1.4% | 4 |
| 337d | junkbonds | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,950 | +$50 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | pretzel | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo>99¢ | $60,939 | +$61 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | lasso | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,962 | +$38 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | FrankoMan | <1.00 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,093 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 337d | aenews22 fills | 1.15-1.19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,709 | +$17 +0.2% | 4 |
| 337d | aenews2 | 1.10-1.14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,965 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | aenews2 | <1.00 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,742 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | aenews2 | 1.05-1.09 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,357 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | aviato | >1.19 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,221 | +$32 +1.4% | 4 |
| 337d |  Cookedtan3 fills | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,129 | +$55 +1.1% | 4 |
| 337d | Cookedtan3 fills | 1.15-1.19 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,121 | +$63 +1.2% | 4 |
| 337d | Cookedtan | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,092 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 337d | Cookedtan3 fills | 1.10-1.14 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,153 | +$31 +0.6% | 4 |
| 337d | Cookedtan3 fills | 1.05-1.09 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,154 | +$30 +0.6% | 4 |
| 341d |  gopfan22 fills | <1.00 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,293 | +$221 +1.7% | 4 |
| 341d |  CPU2 fills | >1.19 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,631 | +$372 +8.0% | 4 |
| 342d | LR12 fills | >1.19 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,031 | +$337 +11% | 4 |
| 343d | russell1103203 fills | >1.19 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $8,667 | −$3,007 −35% | — |
| 343d | gopfan23 fills | >1.19 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $6,645 | +$996 +15% | 4 |
| 345d |  nigamoon | >1.19 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,880 | +$478 +12% | 4 |
| 352d | luckyroulette | 1.10-1.14 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,660 | −$24 −1.4% | — |
| 358d | trentonbraeden272 | 1.05-1.09 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,574 | −$221 −6.2% | — |
| 359d | Ethen409 | 1.00-1.04 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,768 | −$85 −2.2% | — |
| 359d | Fernanda654 | 1.00-1.04 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | −$390 −32% | — |
| 359d | Quinn69 | 1.00-1.04 | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $2,759 | −$1,001 −36% | — |
| 359d | jeb413toryn | 1.00-1.04 | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,754 | −$451 −12% | — |
| 359d | Fernanda654 | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 359d | Quinn69 | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,734 | +$26 +0.7% | 4 |
| 359d | Kathy244 | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,094 | +$29 +0.7% | 4 |
| 359d | Ethen409 | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,826 | +$27 +0.7% | 4 |
| 359d | Francine457 | 1.00-1.04 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,193 | −$30 −0.7% | — |
| 360d | Jocelyn974 | 1.00-1.04 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,391 | −$17 −0.7% | — |
| 360d | Jocelyn974 | 1.00-1.04 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,391 | +$17 +0.7% | 4 |
| 360d | alejandro620keaton | 1.15-1.19 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,213 | +$162 +3.8% | 4 |
| 361d | marianna964salma | 1.05-1.09 | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,228 | −$913 −28% | — |
| 361d | marianna964salma | 1.05-1.09 | BuyNo100¢ | $4,120 | +$21 +0.5% | 4 |
| 364d | lyra441ernest | 1.10-1.14 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,165 | −$39 −0.9% | — |
| 365d | Fox13f | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,379 | +$43 +0.8% | 4 |
| 365d | Earl1 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,368 | +$43 +0.8% | 4 |
| 365d | Renata1 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,384 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Thalia1 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,373 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Vanessa2 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,384 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Peaceful2 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,373 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Thelma13 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,384 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Commander1 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,373 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Naomigfhgf | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,484 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Wonderfulsdfsd | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,471 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Shirleydd | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,484 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Ursula22 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,471 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Gavin22 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,484 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Jennifer123 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,471 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Admirable1 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,484 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Melville2 | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,471 | +$39 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d | Monicadfgf | <1.00 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,372 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
ftmerchant110 sharesThis market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of a named bracket for September 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2025 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for >1.19 means the market gives it about 100%.