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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | 100% | +23 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Launch before March? | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Super Heavy explodes? | 0% | −20 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 6 | 100% | +32 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Launch before March 15? | 100% | +7 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Launch before April? | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 5 | 0% | −46 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 3 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Successful splash down? | 0% | −71 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump attends launch? | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Super Heavy survives re-entry? | 100% | +21 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Reaches space? | 100% | +7 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 589d | polyfabian2 fills | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $3,552 | +$363 +10% | 4 |
| 589d |  sharks-485 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 589d | 0xe093ea5f7765a822309a92a5c2123f78dd9fcd0c | March 6 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,524 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 589d |  coby | Successful splash down? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$10 +1.0% | 4 |
| 589d | m20241223 | Super Heavy survives re-entry? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,373 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 589d |  noreasapa | Super Heavy survives re-entry? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,594 | +$25 +1.6% | 4 |
| 589d | 0xe093ea5f7765a822309a92a5c2123f78dd9fcd0c | March 6 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,411 | +$24 +1.0% | 20 |
| 590d | ORDI1000 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellNo22¢ → 0¢ | $8,282 | +$8,282 +100% | — |
| 590d | Evoquiel-901 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $29,363 | +$8,282 +28% | 4 |
| 590d |  Slowroasted | March 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,936 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 591d | SweetChariot | March 5 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,375 | +$25 +1.8% | 20 |
| 592d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | March 3 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,298 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 592d |  VOID | March 3 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 592d |  CoffeeLover | March 3 | BuyYes99¢ → 0¢ | $1,287 | −$1,287 −100% | 20 |
| 592d |  KimJonEn | Trump attends launch? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,374 | +$26 +1.1% | 4 |
| 592d | surffffdali | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$437 +22% | 4 |
| 593d | polyfabian | Launch before March 15? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | −$16 −1.6% | — |
| 596d | SweetChariot2 fills | Launch before March? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,260 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
| 597d | noreasapa | Launch before March? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,124 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 597d |  ManBa | Launch before March? | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,526 | −$240 −16% | — |
| 597d | KimJonEn | Launch before March? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,586 | +$29 +1.8% | 20 |
| 599d | ManBa | Launch before April? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 |
This is a market on the outcomes of SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 8.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? means the market gives it about 100%.