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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 14 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 222d | MacroEdge77 | March 7 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,094 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 222d | yougotme | March 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,301 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 222d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | March 14 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,957 | +$141 +1.8% | 20 |
| 222d |  ProfitMuhammedPBUH3 fills | March 14 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,000 | +$437 +5.5% | 20 |
| 222d | ProfitMuhammedPBUH2 fills | March 7 | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $5,797 | −$5,797 −100% | 22 |
| 222d | ronaldk | March 14 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $3,111 | +$929 +30% | 22 |
| 233d |  SingleMum | March 14 | SellNo14¢ → 0¢ | $1,409 | +$1,409 +100% | — |
| 233d | SingleMum | March 14 | BuyNo38¢ → 0¢ | $3,615 | −$3,615 −100% | 23 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 14 means the market gives it about 100%.