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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.5–41.9 | 100% | +77 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40.0 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40.0–40.4 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40.5–40.9 | 0% | −5 pts | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 41.0–41.4 | 0% | −72 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 42.0+ | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 252d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | 40.5–40.9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,072 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 252d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | <40.0 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,482 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 252d | wubddh | 41.5–41.9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | +$16 +1.1% | 4 |
bjprolo50 sharesThis market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on February 6, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 41.5–41.9 means the market gives it about 100%.