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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 712d | commeowder4 fills | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $13,327 | +$453 +3.4% | 20 |
| 730d |  50Whence | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | −$58 −4.5% | — |
| 765d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,860 | −$140 −7.5% | — |
| 771d |  babendums | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | −$88 −7.5% | — |
| 801d | ALevinson | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | +$129 +7.9% | 20 |
| 838d | zZQ8xU4Btx | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,780 | +$146 +5.3% | 20 |
| 846d | knaasw34 | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,563 | +$100 +6.4% | 20 |
| 855d | 50Whence | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,089 | +$133 +6.4% | 20 |
| 855d |  ImJustKen | Trump conviction declared a mistrial? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,670 | +$427 +7.5% | 20 |
On June 7 it was reported a person posted the comment “My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted” a day before the conviction, leading to speculation the conviction could be declared a mistrial (see https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1799190574353756499). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump hush money case is declared a mistrial before sentencing. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no sentence is rendered by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.