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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 14¢ (12¢) | — | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 236d | MisterX550 | US civil war before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | −$114 −9.6% | — |
| 258d | ArbitrageTaker | US civil war before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$107 +10% | 4 |
| 264d |  DFK | US civil war before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,886 | +$207 +11% | 4 |
| 264d |  ChetterHummin | US civil war before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,552 | +$198 +13% | 4 |
| 265d | 0xD3Gen | US civil war before 2027? | BuyYes14¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 5 |
| 265d | MisterX550 | US civil war before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$118 +9.9% | 4 |
| 279d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | US civil war before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,727 | +$156 +9.0% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war. Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.