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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 100% | +9 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Welsh Labour | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Welsh Conservatives | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Reform UK | 0% | −8 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Welsh Liberal Democrats | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Welsh Green Party | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Party A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Party O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 161d | d-flow | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,999 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 161d |  Writeoff | Reform UK | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,175 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 161d |  vinii | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,369 | +$14 +1.0% | 10 |
| 162d |  Eire2 fills | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,004 | +$296 +9.9% | 10 |
| 162d | SnowLover7 | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,368 | +$413 +12% | 10 |
| 163d |  ponczyk | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,815 | +$185 +10% | 10 |
| 163d | mm4ker | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,250 | +$140 +11% | 10 |
| 163d | Athletic-Manager | Reform UK | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$214 +11% | 10 |
| 164d | Melody6262 fills | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $5,024 | +$1,224 +24% | 15 |
| 164d | Melody6262 fills | Reform UK | BuyNo79¢ → 100¢ | $5,681 | +$1,479 +26% | 13 |
| 166d | tttt | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,540 | +$460 +30% | 14 |
| 166d | Rigid-Badge | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$798 +32% | 12 |
| 166d | influenz.eth2 fills | Reform UK | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $2,516 | +$894 +36% | 12 |
| 166d | Athletic-Manager | Plaid Cymru | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,036 +35% | 12 |
| 166d | influenz.eth | Welsh Labour | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,397 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
HAM3Z7 shares
mountaindewd500 sharesParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Plaid Cymru means the market gives it about 100%.