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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | 100% | +13 pts | +69 pts | 98¢ · 99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Habshan Field/Processing Complex | 0% | −2 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ras Laffan Industrial City | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ruwais Refinery | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Abqaiq oil processing facility | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ras Tanura | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| East–West Pipeline | 100% | +82 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Al Zour Refinery | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ghawar Field | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Khurais Field | 0% | −2 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Safaniya Field | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Burj Khalifa | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Leviathan Field | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169d | Trustinghorse | Abqaiq oil processing facility | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,042 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 169d | Trustinghorse | Ras Tanura | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,170 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 174d |  MrNoItAll2 fills | Ghawar Field | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,140 | +$154 +4.9% | 20 |
| 174d | MrNoItAll | Abqaiq oil processing facility | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,506 | +$82 +5.4% | 20 |
| 174d | MrNoItAll | Safaniya Field | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,307 | +$72 +5.5% | 20 |
| 174d | MrNoItAll | Ruwais Refinery | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,015 | +$111 +5.5% | 20 |
| 177d | Dar1us | Ras Laffan Industrial City | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,013 | +$211 +10% | 21 |
| 181d |  Marco-Rubio | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,789 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 183d | Marco-Rubio2 fills | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,587 | +$45 +1.2% | 20 |
| 187d | swapbox | Ras Laffan Industrial City | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $2,059 | +$761 +37% | 20 |
| 188d | JeremyStevens4792 | Habshan Field/Processing Complex | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | +$339 +28% | 20 |
| 188d | clicketyclick | Habshan Field/Processing Complex | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,518 | +$428 +28% | 20 |
| 188d |  autisem | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,222 | −$121 −5.4% | — |
| 188d | NicoleShaw4553 | Al Zour Refinery | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | −$146 −12% | — |
| 189d | NicoleShaw4553 | Al Zour Refinery | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$180 +15% | 20 |
| 191d | L.X | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,499 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d | Flimsy-Fibre | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,422 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d | calm.rabbit | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 191d |  Rex416 | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,767 | +$92 +5.2% | 20 |
| 191d | Arman2 | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$114 +7.6% | 20 |
| 191d | ddolsw123r | East–West Pipeline | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,701 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d | oidoioi | East–West Pipeline | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,390 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 191d | Rex416 | East–West Pipeline | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | +$87 +7.5% | 20 |
| 191d | Hull | East–West Pipeline | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | +$153 +11% | 20 |
| 192d | M2sx92kljs422 fills | Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,785 | −$56 −2.0% | — |
| 192d | HannahJones6515 | Safaniya Field | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,746 | +$409 +23% | 20 |
| 193d | AmandaMiller2862 | Ruwais Refinery | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | +$434 +28% | 20 |
| 198d | Burlak | Burj Khalifa | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$57 +4.7% | 20 |
| 199d | citra | Leviathan Field | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | +$236 +21% | 20 |
| 201d | ReginaOwens7080 | Ras Laffan Industrial City | BuyNo63¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$643 +59% | 20 |
| 201d | sparkdigital | Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $1,042 | −$1,042 −100% | 20 |
| 201d | JasonChan7704 | Abqaiq oil processing facility | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$236 +23% | 20 |
| 205d | AnthonyBeasley5530 | East–West Pipeline | SellNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,022 | +$1,022 +100% | — |
| 207d | SheliaHolland6212 | Ras Tanura | BuyNo77¢ → 100¢ | $1,294 | +$387 +30% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) means the market gives it about 0%.