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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 8 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| October 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 9 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 10 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 11 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 12 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 13 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 14 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 15 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 16 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 17 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 18 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 19 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 20 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 21 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 22 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 23 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 24 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 25 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 26 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 27 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 28 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 29 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 30 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| October 31 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| None in October | 0% | −38 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 369d |  LlamaEnjoyer4 fills | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $139,660 | −$549 −0.4% | — |
| 369d | pantomime | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,479 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 369d | MAGA.ONE | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,511 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 369d | Complete-AbundanceNew account | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $25,928 | +$26 +0.1% | 20 |
| 369d |  LINKEIN | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,988 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 369d |  MisTKy32 fills | October 8 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $120,240 | −$669 −0.6% | — |
| 369d | Koolio | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,062 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 370d | Illtakeyourmoney | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,205 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 370d | VvVv14 fills | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $116,771 | −$229 −0.2% | — |
| 370d |  miaominmax | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,051 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 370d |  Bertapotamous | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $24,975 | −$25 −0.1% | — |
| 370d | Anonretard | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,077 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 370d | borntoolate.eth | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 370d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer36 fills | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $11,984 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 370d |  swimmingtoriches | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,064 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 371d |  Morbuu | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 371d |  MrZarvok | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 371d | lianx689 | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,090 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 371d |  adonpoli | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,516 | −$15 −0.1% | — |
| 371d | Complete-AbundanceNew account | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $20,608 | −$21 −0.1% | — |
| 371d |  JoachimPeiper | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,414 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 371d | stealer | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,725 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 371d |  Dropper6 fills | October 8 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $182,565 | +$1,640 +0.9% | 20 |
| 371d | wszxcvfr | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,098 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | wszxcvfr | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,100 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | ggdfgd | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,249 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | ggdfgd | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,250 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | mjufctbyxv | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,585 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | mjufctbyxv | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,587 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | vsdsfa | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,049 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | vsdsfa | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,050 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | edxcvgy | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,220 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | edxcvgy | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,222 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d |  goalone | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,250 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | csaZxz2 fills | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,011 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | csaZxz2 fills | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,014 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | liyiqw | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,019 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | liyiqw | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,020 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | bdzG | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,233 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | bdzG | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,234 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | qasdfgh | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,798 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | qasdfgh | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,800 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | fg0352 fills | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,070 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | fg0352 fills | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,072 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | poimnhiu | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,298 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | poimnhiu | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,300 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | qazxcvbnm | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,053 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | qazxcvbnm | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,055 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | fg0343 fills | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,081 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | fg0343 fills | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,086 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | qwedvgu | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,298 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | qwedvgu | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,300 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | qazxcv | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,797 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | qazxcv | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,800 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | fg0333 fills | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,071 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | fg0333 fills | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,074 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | plmnbhu | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,663 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | ncgbhj | October 8 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,087 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 371d | plmnbhu | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,666 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 371d | ncgbhj | October 8 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,088 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas. If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”. If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 8 means the market gives it about 100%.
