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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1-6 | 100% | +29 pts | +64 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Before July | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 7-13 | 0% | −23 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 14-20 | 0% | −17 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 21-27 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| July 28-Aug 3 | 0% | −14 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Aug 4-10 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Aug 11-17 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Aug 18-24 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Aug 25-31 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Not before September | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 471d | nostradamus-markets2 fills | July 1-6 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,125 | +$17 +0.3% | 4 |
| 471d | cigarettes | Aug 4-10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 471d | cigarettes | Not before September | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 471d | cigarettes | July 14-20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 471d | cigarettes | Aug 25-31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 471d | fsx45 | July 1-6 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$37 +2.7% | 4 |
| 471d | July 28-Aug 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,469 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 474d | Before July | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,983 | +$17 +0.9% | 4 | |
| 474d | Before July | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,327 | +$54 +2.3% | 4 | |
| 475d | Masturbator | Before July | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$229 +11% | 4 |
| 475d | Before July | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | +$126 +11% | 4 | |
| 497d | Before July | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,921 | −$329 −17% | — | |
| 498d | Before July | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,175 | +$625 +20% | 4 | |
| 502d | Before July | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $4,150 | +$850 +20% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to the date range (ET) the next reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for July 1-6 means the market gives it about 100%.