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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic of the Congo | 24% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 18¢ · 30¢ (12¢) | — | in 76d |
| United States | 15% | +3 pts | +6 pts | 10¢ · 20¢ (10¢) | — | in 76d |
| China | 11% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 6¢ · 16¢ (10¢) | — | in 76d |
| Rwanda | 17% | −3 pts | −5 pts | 8¢ · 26¢ (18¢) | — | in 76d |
| Canada | 12% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 9¢ · 15¢ (6¢) | — | in 76d |
| India | 14% | — | −6 pts | 9¢ · 18¢ (9¢) | — | in 76d |
| Ethiopia | 6% | −3 pts | −5 pts | — · 12¢ | — | in 76d |
| Somalia | 39% | +1 pts | +6 pts | 17¢ · 60¢ (43¢) | — | in 76d |
| Burundi | 16% | — | +1 pts | 8¢ · 24¢ (16¢) | — | in 76d |
| South Sudan | 28% | — | −3 pts | 21¢ · 34¢ (13¢) | $135 | in 76d |
| Nigeria | 49% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 7¢ · 90¢ (83¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d | 18in36out | Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,602 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 11d | thoodr | Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,001 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 11d |  AgricultureSecretary | Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026? | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $2,085 | +$1,225 +59% | 4 |
CherryB161,132 shares
macrosteaks402 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 24¢ for Republic of the Congo means the market gives it about 24%.